Quote:
Originally Posted by professor ape
Bill James has spent a good bit of time studying the impact of the construction of batting orders. The conclusion has been that (as counterintuitive at it may seem) the impact of the traditional 'optimal' lineup over random orders is much less than expected. Maybe a few runs over the course of the season.
Basically as long as you aren't putting a pitcher in the #3 slot, there are a lot of other things to put your energy into rather than stressing about whether to bat someone 4th or 5th.
|
it's something like 16runs vs. average lineup (or was it vs. "worst")
how much it affects a season depends on distribution of those runs which to simplify is pretty random.
also, the "optimal" theory for whom goes where often gets thrown out the window based on whom you have.
look at that tiger's lineup up above... it's rational. but, kinsler is probably a better #2 than a #1. on that particular team, he's the best #1, so he gets used there because there's enough power hitters to allow it. if there was a power outage, you don't see him #1 or even maybe #2
if detroit didn't have 3-4 guys capable of producing good power numbers, kinsler wouldn't be batting leadoff if his raking ability is too good in comparison to other options in the 3-4-5 spot of the order (probably the 3 in his case could be viable on some teams).
so, even though there is an optimum way, without endorsing any theory specifically, you'll likely do somethign that contradicts it on many levels based on what you have to work with on your team. there is always a break-even analysis required... the optimal method is not always the best method given the materials at hand. (but it actually is the optimum way if you look at it from the right perspective... it's understanding when trait A overcomes trait b, even though trait b is significantly more important, in general)
planning ahead becomes integral... i always make sure i have an OBP guy and a guy how can at least fill that role during injuries. so, 2/9 slots taken on the team for that... the rest i want power, although 1-2 of those guys i want some speed, too (low priority, but if possible). speed for #2/3 is nice but definitely not worth sacrificing strong offensive numbers.
you can't always just sign the 30hr/100rbi guy and call it good... if you don't have other roles in the lineup, i think it increases volatility, even if it may produce a few more runs. (when the proportion of runs scored becomes too heavily in chunks... easier to come up zero, even if you average more)
other thing to think about
:
in this video game, taking walks can actually hurt a guy expected to focus on RBI's. so, i typically have the better eye in front of the lesser eye (3-4-5) in addition to the other concerns for placing players in those more important slots.
i'm not going to put someone who's increadibly better 5th just for that reason though.. .but when they are similar i look for something less prevalent (cause/effect that's less important / less frequent).
this situation is a complex web of various curves that don't necessary max out at the same time for the same reasons. so, all or nothing is never going to work well in this situation... be fluid and maleable to what you have to work with on your roster...
if you prefer a certain type of structure to teh lineup, make sure your player procurement methods are in line with your thoughts aobut hte lineup... from top-to-bottom you need to be creating synergy in how you do things.