[Westheim]

Raccoons (77-53) @ Bayhawks (72-57) – August 27-29, 2018

The Bayhawks had yet to win a game this year against the Raccoons, having gotten swept in each of the first two series, plus, last time they had gotten swept, the Bayhawks had lost first place in the South to the Condors. This could happen again – if the Raccoons would find a way to score the odd run or two. Scoring was normally not an issue for the Baybirds, who ranked third in runs scored with the highest team batting average, while their pitching was merely serviceable, putting them seventh in terms of runs allowed.

Projected matchups:
Bobby Guerrero (12-11, 3.64 ERA) vs. Joao Joo (11-9, 3.17 ERA)
Ricky Mendoza (12-8, 4.73 ERA) vs. Manuel Rojas (13-10, 4.14 ERA)
Hector Santos (11-8, 2.83 ERA) vs. Milt Beauchamp (10-13, 4.70 ERA)

Joo would be another one of those tough left-handers that had a habit of choking furry woodland creatures. After that it would be the right-handers “Doom” Rojas and Beauchamp.

Game 1
POR: SS Walter – 3B Nunley – LF Jackson – 1B H. Mendoza – C Denny – CF Bareford – 2B Hudman – RF Petracek – P Guerrero
SFB: LF R. Allen – 2B Ingraham – SS Claros – CF D. Garcia – RF Sarabia – 3B Ladd – C Case – 1B J. Rodriguez – P Joo

Three runs were slapped over Guerrero’s head right in the first inning, courtesy of putting the first three batters on base with a walk to Roger Allen, Zach Ingraham’s single, and Raul Claros’ RBI double. The last two runs scored on a pair of sac flies. The two hits the Birds picked up in the inning would be their only ones for a long time, but for an equally long time the Raccoons failed to make up a 3-run deficit. Guerrero issued three leadoff walks in the game overall, but the Bayhawks hit into double plays in their other opportunities. The Raccoons had basically nothing cooking for four innings until Brock Hudman led off the fifth inning with a double to left. Walter doubled him in with two outs, plating the Critters’ first run. They had a pair of doubles in the sixth by Jackson and Denny to get a second run, but despite having the tying run on second base with one out, the Coons could not make any more contact. Despite out-hitting the Birds 7-2 through six, they still trailed, 3-2. Guerrero was hit for in the top 7th, with Dahlke striking out in his spot, but Wade Davis kept the Bayhawks where they were, too, and both halves of the eighth went by in 1-2-3 fashion, Mathis doing the honors. That put the Raccoons’ 6-7-8 up against left-hander Mike Stank in the ninth inning, and it could hardly come worse for them. Mathews hit for Bareford and singled, put was swiftly forced on Hudman’s grounder. Petracek struck out, with Margolis taking a stick in Mathis’ place, grounding softly up the third base line and being thrown out by Wes Ladd by a good margin. 3-2 Bayhawks. Walter 2-4, 2B, RBI; Denny 2-4, 2B, RBI; Mathews (PH) 1-1;

Alright, alright, we’re not gonna make the playoffs…

Game 2
POR: SS Walter – 3B Nunley – 1B H. Mendoza – C Denny – LF DeWeese – 2B Mathews – RF Thomson – CF Bareford – P R. Mendoza
SFB: LF R. Allen – RF Sarabia – CF D. Garcia – C D. Alexander – SS Claros – 2B Ingraham – 3B Ladd – 1B J. Rodriguez – P Rojas

Roger Allen romped a leadoff jack in the first inning to get the Bayhawks into the front seat again instantly. The Coons’ first seven batters racked up five strikeouts against “Doom” Rojas, but a Mathews and Bareford found singles in the top of the second. With two down, Ricky Mendoza grounded up the middle and past Claros, and with the early start Mathews scored the tying run from second base. Walter walked to load them up afterwards, but Nunley grounded out to Javy Rodriguez. The bases were loaded again with one out in the third after Denny doubled, DeWeese singled, and Mathews walked. Thomson wisely held still when Rojas fell behind him and drew a go-ahead, run-scoring walk, after which Bareford did not hold still and struck out. Mendoza came up with a 2-out single for the second time in as many at-bats, this one plating another run, and then Walter singled hard to right for two runs to score, although the inning also ended when Hugo Mendoza was caught in a run-down between second and third and tagged out by Ladd – but the Raccoons were up 5-1, and now they just needed Ricky Mendoza to not blow it. He got through five innings okay, allowing only one hit, but got stuck in the sixth, with the Raccoons having gone down 1-2-3 three times in the meantime. Victor Sarabia hit a leadoff single to left in the bottom 6th, and was on second base with two outs. Mendoza’s effort turned south abruptly as he drilled Claros, then walked Ingraham. With the tying run coming up, Chris Mathis entered as Mendoza exited. Ladd grounded a 1-2 to the left side, Nunley made the play, no panic, and the inning fizzled out for San Francisco, but Mathis allowed a leadoff double to Javy Rodriguez in the seventh. He got two outs before we arrived at the left-hander Sarabia, for whom Kaiser came out. Sarabia singled, the run scored, 5-2, and Kaiser stuck around for Dave Garcia, a right-handed batter, who promptly crashed a BIG home run to get the Birds to back within a run. D-Alex grounded out to end the inning, but good grief…

The Critters didn’t make it back on base after their 4-run third inning until Mathews hit a 1-out double to left in the eighth inning off Jeff Boynton, who went on to concede the run on a single by Chris Thomson. Bareford continued to make himself most unpopular by hitting into a double play. Wade Davis put up a 1-2-3 eighth inning to keep the Bayhawks down by two runs, and the ninth went to Alex Ramirez, with Ron Thrasher getting ready if Ramirez would get into the lefty-heavy part of the lineup. But a groundout by Rodriguez and strikeouts by Aaron Case and Roger Allen ended the game before it got to that, as the Coons evened the series. 6-4 Critters. Mathews 2-3, BB, 2B; R. Mendoza 5.2 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, W (13-8) and 2-3, 2 RBI;

This is one rare instance in which his batting puts the starting pitcher into the honor roll at the end of the game. Also, this Mendoza went 2-for-3 and was perfectly well before the Bayhawks piled all they had into one inning (just like Monday!), but the other Mendoza went 0-for-4 and struck out twice before being double-switched out when Kaiser came in.

Game 3
POR: SS Walter – 2B Mathews – 3B Nunley – 1B H. Mendoza – C Denny – LF DeWeese – RF Thomson – CF Petracek – P Santos
SFB: LF R. Allen – RF Sarabia – CF D. Garcia – C D. Alexander – SS Claros – 2B Ingraham – 3B Ladd – 1B J. Harris – P Beauchamp

The Critters hit into double plays in the first (Nunley) and second (Denny), before Santos drew a 2-out walk in the third, Walter singled, and Mathews hit a hard drive to deep right that nevertheless wound up with Sarabia. Santos allowed no hits the first time through, but Sarabia opened the bottom 4th with a single to right, only to have Dave Garcia hit into the double play this time. Petracek walked and stole a base, but was left on third base when Walter flew out to center in the fifth inning, after which the game was still scoreless. A fluke single by Beauchamp leading off the bottom 6th also did not do much to break the scoring drought, and the Raccoons arrived at a real dilemma in the seventh inning, having Thomson on second, Petracek on first, and Santos batting with one out. He was taming the Bayhawks, so removing him after six was not a great option. He was sent to bunt, did that well, and when Walter came up with runners in scoring position, he cracked a 1-1 pitch to left, a liner over Ladd’s head that was not catchable by a common human, and fell in for a 2-run single. Santos remained strong through seven, then crashed in the eighth. Ladd singled up the middle and he walked John Harris, putting the tying runs on with nobody out. With left-hander Jonathan Pruitt in the #9 hole after a double switch, Thrasher was called from the pen. The Bayhawks actually hit a different left-hander for Matt Pruitt’s cousin, but Aaron Case hit into a 1-5-3 double play, leaving only Harris on second base. Allen was a right-hander, but the pitcher’s spot was behind him, so Thrasher remained in the game and got a grounder to Nunley for the third out. However, Thrasher was no longer around for the ninth, having been hit for in a successless top of the ninth. Ramirez was on his own in the bottom 9th, facing left-handed pinch-hitter Robby Vasquez, who singled, and after that things went as well as you might imagine. Garcia doubled in Vasquez, D-Alex sent a drive to left that DeWeese intercepted, but DeWeese had zero chance on Claros drive to deep left that fell in for a game-tying double. With the winning run on second base, the Bayhawks’ Ingraham popped out to first, and Ladd rolled out to first, sending the game to extras, and Ramirez to the Chamber of Nobody Will Hear Your Screaming.

The next frequent dip**** ruined the tenth inning, which saw Mathews on with an error, Nunley on with a single, nobody out, and then Hugo Mendoza hit into a double play. Denny popped out to short. The Bayhawks also left the winning run in scoring position in the bottom 10th, with Jeffrey Matthews doubling off Chun and taking third on a wild pitch, but being left on when Javy Rodriguez flew out to Thomson, who was in a big spot in the 11th after DeWeese’s leadoff walk. The hit-and-run was called, DeWeese ran, Thomson hit, a single to right, and the Coons had them on the corners with nobody out against worn-out former starter Chae-ku Lee. Petracek popped out to second, Margolis hit a 3-1 pitch right into Lee’s glove, and Walter grounded out to Ingraham to score zero runs. After two scoreless innings by Chun and a Coons no-show in the top 12th, we basically gave up in the game, or it looked like that; Chet Cummings appeared for the bottom 12th, and this just could not end well. The Birds actually went down in order in the 12th, but Ladd’s liner to left was just barely inside DeWeese’s comfort zone and could have been a double had it been just ten feet further towards the gap. To anybody’s surprise, the Coons were still alive in the 14th, which opened with Margolis pulling a leadoff walk. Walter hit a looper to right that fell in ahead of the rushing Matthews, who got the ball to strike the bill of his cap, knocking it off, and fell down before scurrying after the ball that was still hobbling towards deeper right. The runners got to scoring position, with nobody out and the middle of the order on the approach. I swear, if you ****ers don’t score… Mathews popped out to get to a crisp 0-for-7 for the game, and I had a sudden stinging sensation in the left chest and arm. Nunley took a ball before slapping a pitch to short, a soft line that BARELY made it over Claros’ raised glove, and into left for an RBI single! William Raven replaced Lee, but balked in Walter before Hugo Mendoza got a chance to hit into a double play, and instead he chose the coward’s approach and took a walk to first when Raven wasn’t giving him likely longballs. Bareford batted for Cummings, singled to right to plate Nunley, who drew a late throw, moving the other runners to scoring position. DeWeese got four very wide ones, but Raven then drilled Thomson, shoving in another run, the fourth in the inning. Petracek and Margolis both hit drives to center, both were caught, but at least Petracek plated another run with the sac fly. There wasn’t much left in the pen, but then there was a 7-2 lead. We had only Davis, Mathis, and Kaiser left – all had pitched in the middle game, and Kaiser was the only one to not have pitched in all games of the series so far, and with two left-handers in the first three up in the bottom 14th, he got the ball, and ended the Bayhawks on ten pitches. 7-2 Raccoons! Walter 4-7, 2 RBI; Nunley 4-7, RBI; Bareford (PH) 1-1, RBI; Thomson 2-6, RBI; Santos 7.0 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K; Chun 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K; Cummings 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, W (2-1);

That… was Ramirez’ tenth blown save this year. TEN! TEN BLOWN SAVES!!

Thanks, Alex. Thanks. Don’t expect a Christmas card.

Raccoons (79-54) vs. Indians (66-67) – August 31-September 2, 2018

Ninth in runs scored, third in runs allowed, the Indians had certainly expected more out of this season, but not only were they more or less at .500, their run differential was almost zero at +3, and with a +3 RD you weren’t going to make the playoffs. They had a decent rotation, fifth by ERA, and a top three bullpen, but against the Raccoons they were 4-7 on the year.

Projected matchups:
Damani Knight (5-8, 4.90 ERA) vs. Kyle Lamb (2-1, 4.82 ERA)
Jonathan Toner (20-4, 2.41 ERA) vs. Dan Lambert (12-7, 3.68 ERA)
Bobby Guerrero (12-12, 3.67 ERA) vs. Tristan Broun (9-10, 2.45 ERA)

This was going to be a tough pitching series, featuring southpaws for Indy on either end of their probables. But at least we would get a chance to rough up Broun, who was one of a bunch of competitors of Jonny Toner for the ERA title and thus the triple crown.

Game 1
IND: 2B Eason – CF D. Morales – LF Genge – RF Gilmor – SS Matias – C Garner – 1B Eaton – 3B Nelson – P Lamb
POR: SS Walter – 3B Nunley – RF Jackson – 1B H. Mendoza – C Denny – LF DeWeese – CF Bareford – 2B Hudman – P Knight

Knight came out wonky, walked Bobby Eason on four pitches, and allowed a double to Danny Morales. Both runs scored on sac flies to give the Indians a quick and unwelcome 2-0 lead. Brock Hudman would get the Raccoons on the board with a solo homer in the third, but Randy Garner ripped Knight for a 2-run shot in the top of the fourth, as the gap only got bigger. The Raccoons managed only two soft singles outside of Hudman’s dinger through six, and Knight was knocked out after a leadoff walk to Pat Eaton in the top of the seventh. Chun replaced him, got a foul pop from Aaron Nelson and forced Eaton on a poor bunt by Kyle Lamb, but then threw a wild pitch and conceded the run anyway on Bobby Eason’s 3-2 liner up the leftfield line, putting the Indians 5-1 ahead, although the run was on him rather than Knight by then. The Raccoons really got nothing done; Tom Dahlke had a pinch-hit single with one out in the eighth against Joel Davis, but Walter and Nunley didn’t even get the ball out of the infield, and while Joey Mathews drew a walk in the ninth, the Raccoons didn’t get past first base then, either. 5-1 Indians. Dahlke (PH) 1-1;

Goddamnit, we’re so ****ed. But now it’s September and we can get up all our hot and juicy prospects that will really fire up the lineup!

(crazed laughter)

Okay, seriously. We called up some bodies. But none of them will help a lot. Matt Schroeder and Nick Lester were brought up to lengthen the pen, both pitching to ERA’s in the low 3’s in AAA, and of course Schroeder had appeared in 28 games for the Raccoons already with a 3.06 ERA. The mandatory third catcher would be a trash heap signing from two winters ago, 25-year old Edwin Prieto. The 25-year old Dominican was a defensive catcher foremost and was batting .224 with one homer in AAA. He was a right-handed batter. Tim Prince came up again, having batted .251 with two homers in 73 AAA games. Finally, Danny Ochoa, left-handed corner outfielder. That was it, but of course the Raccoons were expecting more important reinforcements from the DL, and it was not unlikely that some of the call-ups would be sent back to AAA when Duarte and Cookie would return. Looking especially at Ochoa, but also Bareford, who was un-bare-able, and for Cookie his DL stint was almost up.

Game 2
IND: C Garner – CF D. Morales – SS Matias – LF Genge – RF C. Martinez – 3B Suda – 1B Landeros – 2B D. Ortega – P Lambert
POR: SS Walter – 2B Mathews – 3B Nunley – 1B H. Mendoza – C Denny – LF DeWeese – RF Jackson – CF Bareford – P Toner

Ruben Landeros drawing a walk off Toner, who otherwise struck out five, was the only base runner in the first three innings. Danny Morales led off the fourth with a soft liner to right center that nobody seemed to be able to get to, had a double, then scored on Raul Matias’ single to left center. DeWeese threw home, way too late, Matias moved to second, was balked to third by Toner, and scored on a groundout in one truly ****ed up inning. Dan Lambert tossed 4 2/3 perfect innings before DeWeese ripped a double to right, which was the first of three straight hits for Portland. Jackson singled and plated DeWeese, 2-1, and Bareford also singled, but Toner’s fly to shallow right was caught by Cesar Martinez. Walter led off the sixth with a double to right, but Mathews struck out. Nunley grounded to Domingo Ortega, whose throw to first was dropped by Landeros, putting runners on the corners with one out for Mend-…oh. He actually hit a good liner to right, but Martinez caught it, sliding, but could not get up and fire home in time to nip Walter, who scored the tying run on the sac fly. The Indians had the go-ahead run on base right away in the seventh when Martinez singled to center. He stole second off a sluggish Denny while the Indians threw every left-handed batter they could find at Toner. The left-handers weren’t the issue. Toner struck out Nick Gilmor and Oliver Torres, but also threw two wild pitches to plate the runner. Danny Young, another pinch-hitter, also struck out, but the damage was once more done.

The dismal Critters managed to put Bareford on base with a 2-out walk in the bottom 7th, which was as much rage as they could generate, but Margolis, batting for Toner, flew out to center. Eason singled off Mathis, pinch-hitting to start the eighth inning, but was caught up in a double play. The Coons brought up the top of the order for the bottom 8th against righty Jarrod Morrison. Only Walter made contact, and that only for about 60 feet. They did not get another base-runner until DeWeese snipped a 2-out single to shallow right in the ninth against right-hander Helio Maggessi, whose numbers were so much better than Ramirez’. When Jackson grounded a 1-2 pitch past Ryan Georges into leftfield, DeWeese dashed to third base, and Tom Dahlke hit for Bareford. And he grounded out. 3-2 Indians. DeWeese 2-4, 2B; Jackson 2-4, RBI;

Game 3
IND: 1B O. Torres – CF D. Morales – SS Matias – LF Genge – RF C. Martinez – 3B Suda – C Mancuso – 2B Eason – P Broun
POR: SS Walter – 3B Nunley – RF Jackson – 1B H. Mendoza – C Margolis – LF DeWeese – CF Bareford – 2B Prince – P Guerrero

And once more the Raccoons were completely out of the game after half an inning as Oliver Torres singled to center, scored on Lowell Genge’s screaming triple into the rightfield corner, and if not for a stellar play by Nunley, going to his left and making a spinning throw to first just barely in time to nip Cesar Martinez, the Indians would probably have scored a dozen. The Coons were close to doing absolutely nothing the first time through before the runts of the litter reached on a single (Bareford) and walk (Prince) to start the bottom of the third. Bobby Guerrero bunted into a double play, Walter struck out, and it was just not going to stop, wasn’t it? Guerrero continued to sabotage the entire effort, dropping a Hugo Mendoza feed at first base for an error that put Martinez on in the fourth inning, after which “Quasimodo” Suda, that ancient, hunch-backed sucker, hit a single to right, putting runners on the corner. Once more, Nunley save the team from tremendous damage, taking Nolan Mancuso’s sharp grounder for an inning-ending double play, 5-4-3.

Guerrero struck out eight in the seven innings he pitched, and thanks to Nunley allowed no other runs. But, well, Tristan Broun was still making the very most of the sole run he had been given, and was piching a 4-hit shout through six innings, while actually facing only one batter over the minimum thanks to two more double plays that DeWeese rolled into and Bareford getting caught stealing in the sixth. Bottom 7th, Nunley drew a 4-pitch walk to get the inning started. Jackson was in no unsure signs (pointed index finger, level left lower arm, two fists, pointed index finger) to bunt, which pretty much never happened, but the Raccoons by conventional means would NEVER score against Broun, who made his fourth start against them this year, and so far this was the third one in which he didn’t allow a run… Jackson bunted, albeit badly. Broun picked it and threw to second, albeit badly, with the ball bouncing well in front of Raul Matias, who almost fell asleep waiting for the ball. Nunley was safe, Jackson was safe and got a single for whatever reason, and the assumed End of All Pitching appeared in the box. Broun’s 2-0 was low and went through Mancuso’s legs for a wild pitch, but that only served to put Mendoza on first base eventually. Bases loaded, no outs, we were never going to score. Margolis was 2-for-2 in the game, both in hits and in getting-written-off-in-****ing-DeWeese’s-double-plays. He grounded the 0-1 pitch to right, Domingo Ortega oughta have that one and turn – NO!! It gets through! Margolis with a single! The tying run comes home!!

The park was all up now, nobody was sitting down anymore, except for the wheelchair users in the handicapped section. Mike Denny batted for DeWeese, who had done enough damage to his own team in this game. The Indians stuck to Broun. COME ON DENNY!! KILL THE ****ER!!! The 1-0, hit to center, high and deep, but not deep enough. No, Morales has it. But Jackson tagged, Jackson scored, 2-1 Raccoons. Bareford with a grounder to left, through the immobile Suda and into left for an RBI single, 3-1! Tim Prince walked, with Broun still going as Dahlke pinch-hit for Guerrero, grounded the first pitch up the middle, Matias has it behind second base, can’t get Prince! Can he get Dahlke at first – NO!! DAHLKE IS SAFE!! ANOTHER RUN SCORES!!

That was it. Broun struck out Walter, and Nunley grounded out to short, but four runs scored and the Coons had thoroughly ruined Broun’s ERA after all, running it up to 2.55! The Indians had the air knocked out of them. Matias got a hit off Wade Davis with two outs in the eighth, but that was the only runner. Ramirez surely tried, but the Indians couldn’t hang his 11th blown save on him as the Coons salvaged a game in this rotten series. 4-1 Raccoons. Margolis 3-4, RBI; Bareford 3-4, RBI; Prince 0-1, 2 BB; Dahlke (PH) 1-1, RBI; Guerrero 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K, W (13-12);

In other news

September 1 – DEN SP Willis Sanguino (9-12, 4.14 ERA) is expected to miss nine months with radial nerve compression.
September 1 – Vegas swingman Jason Clements (7-5, 4.15 ERA), acquired earlier in the year from the Indians, is out for the year with shoulder inflammation.
September 1 – The Condors win a 1-0 game against the Knights on TIJ C Jose Vargas’ (.295, 14 HR, 51 RBI) ninth-inning home run.
September 2 – The Blue Sox get crushed by the Miners in a 17-1 blasting. The Miners have 22 hits, including four each from Tyler Stewart (.302, 1 HR, 30 RBI) and Dave Carter (.289, 15 HR, 50 RBI) who plates three and scores five times.

Complaints and stuff

First off, the ****ing offense is gonna kill me before the playoffs, even if they make them. It’s just a gigantic ****ed up mess. They are so super annoying, they probably have no clue how ****ing annoying they are. Speaks for the rest of the pitching that we’ve been able to run out Damani Knight for three months, Ryan Nielson for two months, and Ricky Mendoza for the full year and we are STILL IN ****ING FIRST PLACE. GODDAMN **** IT SCORE SOME ****ING RUNS YOU ****ING ****S!!

(phew)

It’s okay, Maud, I was just looking at the offensive stats. – Yes, again. – No, I won’t do it again. – Yes, I promise. – Oh, you have sponsors over there. – Loud and clear? – What do you mean, they’re gone now?

Regardless! That one had to go out of my system. I just… I … hnngggh!

Most important, timetables. Cookie will come off the DL as good as new on Monday. That is a BIG plus. Since Jackson hasn’t done anything recently, Cookie goes back to right and Bareford gets a few more games. Duarte and Brownie (still alive!) would probably be able to return about next weekend. Brownie would go to AAA for rehab after missing most of the season, and would return after the end of the minor-league season, then would probably pitch out of the pen unless I have murdered Damani Knight by then. Tadasu Abe would not get back until the middle of the month, probably after the end of the AAA season. Ronnie McKnight, unfortunately, will not make it back this year.

We beat the Bayhawks 8-1 over a season once before in 1986, which is these days remembered for absolutely nothing. I think ’86 was the year I really got into hating the Elks real hard, and that was probably also the year where Scott Wade carried a no-hitter through seven against them and eventually lost a 1-0 game on a one-hitter.

We had Thursday off and had some news for the fans, announcing that Matt Nunley had signed a 4-year, $4.2M contract extension with the Raccoons! The 27-year old left-hander will have his last year of arbitration and three years of free agency bought out by the deal. Nunley will make $850k next year, $1.05M in ’20, and $1.15M in the last two years.

I wanted him for five years, but he wasn’t biting. I consider the price okay, inching towards a team-friendly contract. Everybody knows that WAR sucks, but he was worth more than five WAR (including defense) in 2017, and should be worth up to five this year. He is relatively robust, appearing in 146 or more games in all of his full seasons (pre-2018 of course, since we’re not at that many games yet). He had that one poor offensive season in there, but overall I’m totally fine with that fourth-round pick.

I hope I can get McKnight for a similar deal next year. He’s got one less year of major league experience compared to Nunley, and of course they were back-to-back Rookies of the Year.

Finally, strength of schedule from here on out:

POR has games left with: BOS (6), IND (4), VAN (4), MIL (3), LVA (3), NYC (3), TIJ (3) - .503
NYC has games left with: VAN (6), MIL (4), BOS (3), IND (3), LVA (3), POR (3), TIJ (3) - .517

These are almost identical! Well, we play another once more, and we have the same South teams left, and three against every other North team at least, so the difference is really just seven games that flip one way or another right now. The eggheads give the Raccoons a 97.6% playoff chance. The South is probably more interesting to watch, with four teams still in the thick of things. The Condors get 36.3% odds there although I don’t see why exactly that would be…