OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Goals being scored on the first or second shot?

JeffR · 04-25-2017, 05:56 PM

I watched the start of 30 games in the match engine (2016-17 NHL, using play, not simming.) So, 60 first shots (by each team) and 60 second shots, 120 total shots. 14 goals scored, so .883 save %. Just slightly lower than expected, but well within the margin of error given the small sample size and not indicative of any obvious problem. (And only 5 of the 14 were on first shots, so the save percentage there was actually better than average.)

Consider the math around the first two shots of the game: Around 10% of shots on goal are going to result in goals in most leagues. So it's not going to be uncommon to see the first or second shot on a team go in - it'll typically happen to a specific team about every 5 games, and every third game will see at least one team score on one of its first two shots. The chances of one team's first or second shot scoring in 3 consecutive games, as in the first post, would be a little under 1 in 25 - I don't think that's even enough to call it "rare"; most teams would see it happen multiple times in an NHL-length season.

It's really about perception more than anything. When you're watching real games, they're spaced days apart. In the game, though, you're seeing them minutes apart. So patterns become a little more apparent in the latter, even when they also exist in the former.

04-25-2017, 05:56 PM	#10
JeffR FHM Producer Join Date: Apr 2002 Location: Kelowna, BC Posts: 17,250	I watched the start of 30 games in the match engine (2016-17 NHL, using play, not simming.) So, 60 first shots (by each team) and 60 second shots, 120 total shots. 14 goals scored, so .883 save %. Just slightly lower than expected, but well within the margin of error given the small sample size and not indicative of any obvious problem. (And only 5 of the 14 were on first shots, so the save percentage there was actually better than average.) Consider the math around the first two shots of the game: Around 10% of shots on goal are going to result in goals in most leagues. So it's not going to be uncommon to see the first or second shot on a team go in - it'll typically happen to a specific team about every 5 games, and every third game will see at least one team score on one of its first two shots. The chances of one team's first or second shot scoring in 3 consecutive games, as in the first post, would be a little under 1 in 25 - I don't think that's even enough to call it "rare"; most teams would see it happen multiple times in an NHL-length season. It's really about perception more than anything. When you're watching real games, they're spaced days apart. In the game, though, you're seeing them minutes apart. So patterns become a little more apparent in the latter, even when they also exist in the former.