[OldFatGuy]

The problem with the TTOP is that it can't be ALL due to times through the order.

The numbers show some set amount of increase to the average OPS of each batter the third and fourth times through the order (I can't remember the exact number but for grins let's say the number is .250 the fourth time through the order).

Now what we don't know is how much of that .250 is due to the "advantage" that hitters gain by seeing the same pitcher multiple times in the same day and how much of that .250 is due to pitcher fatigue. If you model a game that has a .250 increase in the average OPS the fourth time through order and you've already modelled some sort of pitching rating drop due to fatigue, then you've overdone it.

I don't know how much of the "advantage" is TTOP and how much is fatigue, but if I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably more of a fatigue issue than a TTOP issue, or they're both about the same. But we don't know. We can't separate out the two with the current data available.