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I've never seen it in the game, but it does remind me of an Effectively Wild (the Fangraphs (nee Baseball Prospectus) podcast) episode where they tried to guess how many home runs a pitcher would have to surrender leading off the game to be pulled. I think they settled on 5 or 6, which seemed low to me when I first listened to the episode, but maybe is closer to the answer than I gave them credit for.
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Apologies if this post has been answered in the forums previously. I suck at searching within them.
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