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From my general experience: the odds of the pitch developing as you have described it are about equal to the odds of a prospect making it to the show. I have had a player with similar ratings develop that 3rd pitch and become an ace. I have had 20 other or so similar pitchers either flame out or become relievers.
I still covet such pitchers as I am not opposed to running 2 pitch starters out there for my 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Good pitchers can pull it off (usually their shelf life as a starter is fairly limited though: half season to 2 seasons).
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