League 1-1 Pennant Chase Update
DH League
Percentages listed are chance of making the top 16 teams, which are both the playoffs and the likely indicator of advancing to the next round of the Tournament.
1. 2015 Toronto Blue Jays, 134-77 (+2) - 100%
2. 2013 Boston Red Sox, 133-78 (+4) - 100%
3. 1997 New York Yankees, 132-79 (+3) - 100%
4. 2003 Seattle Mariners, 123-88 (+6) - 100%
5. 1992 Toronto Blue Jays, 123-88 (+1) - 100%
6. 2001 New York Yankees, 123-88 (-1) - 100%
7. 2015 Houston Astros, 121-90 (+3) - 100%
8. 1998 Texas Rangers, 120-91 (+3) - 100%
9. 1978 Boston Red Sox, 120-91 (+4) - 100%
10. 2005 New York Yankees, 119-92 (+5) - 100%
11. 1978 Texas Rangers, 118-93 (+5) - 100%
12. 1988 Kansas City Royals, 114-97 (0) - 95.2%
13. 2010 Texas Rangers, 114-97 (-2) - 96.5%
14. 1982 Chicago White Sox, 113-98 (-2) - 88.8%
15. 2015 Kansas City Royals, 112-99 (+4) - 79.1%
16. 1977 New York Yankees, 110-101 (+1) - 54.2%
17. 2013 Tampa Bay Rays, 110-101 (-1) - 51.6%
18. 1975 Boston Red Sox, 107-104 (-3) - 11.6%
19. 1979 Boston Red Sox, 107-104 (-2) - 12%
Note that despite the fact that there are 29 games remaining, the odds calculator only sees 19 teams with a shot at the final 16 teams (the Original League, in contrast, has 25 teams with a shot at the last 16 spots). What happened? The 2013 Cleveland Indians are only a game behind the '79 Red Sox, but have a six-game worse pythagorean record. The 2013 Texas Rangers are two games behind the Sox, but have an eight-game worse pythagorean record. And so on.
Original League
Percentages listed are chance of making the top 16 teams, which are both the playoffs and the likely indicator of advancing to the next round of the Tournament, though generally a league of this size will expect to send 18 teams to the next round.
1. 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates, 136-75 (+1) - 100%
2. 1964 Cincinnati Reds, 126-85 (+8) - 100%
3. 1991 Pittsburgh Pirates, 122-89 (-2) - 100%
4. 1955 Cleveland Indians, 119-92 (+6) - 100%
5. 1987 San Francisco Giants, 117-94 (0) - 99.6%
6. 1954 Cleveland Indians, 116-95 (-4) - 99.6%
7. 2004 San Francisco Giants, 115-96 (+3) - 98%
8. 1903 Cleveland Naps, 115-96 (+5) - 94%
9. 1958 New York Yankees, 115-96 (+4) - 97%
10. 1987 St. Louis Cardinals, 114-97 (+2) - 93.3%
11. 1916 New York Giants, 113-98 (+4) - 84.6%
12. 1961 New York Yankees, 112-99 (-7) - 83.8%
13. 1964 Baltimore Orioles, 112-99 (+5) - 75.8%
14. 1923 Detroit Tigers, 110-100 (+5) - 65.1%
15. 1955 Boston Red Sox, 110-101 (0) - 50.8%
16. 1963 New York Yankees, 110-101 (-2) - 46.8%
17. 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks, 110-101 (+1) - 43.5%
18. 1989 Chicago Cubs, 109-102 (+3) - 30.9%
19. 1980 Cincinnati Reds, 108-103 (+1) - 18.9%
20. 1907 Philadelphia Athletics, 108-103 (-2) - 18.9%
21. 1958 Detroit Tigers, 108-103 (+4) - 20.7%
22. 1967 San Francisco Giants, 107-104 (-5) - 12.8%
23. 1939 St. Louis Cardinals, 107-104 (0) - 11.8%
24. 1908 Cleveland Naps, 107-104 (+8) - 10.1%
25. 1908 Detroit Tigers, 107-104 (0) - 14.1%
What a genuinely freakish lead the 1902 Pittsburgh Pirates have. They have a ten-game lead in normal record, and an 11-game lead in pythag. Yeah, it's 211 games in, but still. These teams are all, at minimum, pretty good. Based on this one season, if I were to pick one team of these 92 to make the final round, the 1902 Pirates would be it.