[NoOne]

typically, if i have them protected after 6 years of mil control, they are ~AAA developed. so, they can be ML depth too in many instances.

before players get added due to injury, i typically have ~7-8 spots open to start a year. hopefully the protected prospects can fill in as needed, but plenty of open spots to start the year is key. sometimes i'll have a couple more guys stashed in AAA, if necessary.

release any carry-over 40-man injury replacements 1st day of offseason before new contract. (or, rarely keep as needed)

a bunch of major injuries and you're not competing for anything, anyway. i cover what i can realistically recover from and still make playoffs. $5M payroll in the minors is about the lowest ROI possible. something to minimize

i think Law of indpendent results is the main force... personality may cause what you speak of about a player sucking for a month etc... but even so, the probability is change slightly, then it still has to play out with each roll of the dice.

you cannot look at 1 result or watch a season and recognize anythign to that effect about pitching (1). players on base defintely changes the %'s for pitchers (i'd bet the house wthout ootp chiming in). i wouldn't get too specific about how or when that % is applied though (high leverage?). bottom line is a better rated player is more likely to be successful -- "better" relative to all neccessary things for that particular league, even if we don't know "it" by looking)

all the things that effect teh %'s is more like the tide relative to individual players results.