OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - No longer able to use a certain year as base year in Random Debut.

actionjackson · 01-25-2018, 06:13 PM

I've just run test sims in both OOTP16 and OOTP18 with the same settings (where possible, obviously that would exclude settings that have been added since OOTP16 finished it's development cycle) over a forty season span (1946-1985) setting the game up to auto-import LTMs for each season as they go whizzing past. I did not tie the stats to one particular season as this thread has been discussing. I wanted to see what would happen with a normal random debut setup.

I thought the results were interesting. It appears to me that OOTP18 runs quite a bit hotter than OOTP16 when it comes to extreme seasons. I'll leave it up to the reader to decide whether or not it's an issue. I used Real Stats with 3 year double weighted recalc for both of these test runs.

First the results for the OOTP16 test run. These numbers are the number of individual player seasons at or above the figure indicated for the particular metric. They also include instances where the number rounded up to the figure indicated:

AVG - .350 or higher - 41 player seasons
OBP - .450 or higher - 16 player seasons
SLG - .600 or higher - 59 player seasons
OPS - 1.050 or higher - 26 player seasons
WAR - 10.0 or higher - 12 player seasons

Now the results for the OOTP18 test run results. The same conditions apply as in the OOTP16 test run with rounding up etc.

AVG - .350 or higher - 70 player seasons
OBP - .450 or higher - 53 player seasons
SLG - .600 or higher - 97 player seasons
OPS - 1.050 or higher - 49 player seasons
WAR - 10.0 or higher - 34 player seasons

Now for the figures of the last player (rankings run from 1-100, so this is #100) in the rankings in each category in the OOTP18 test run, and how many players exceeded this value in the OOTP16 test run:

AVG - #100: .3458, only 55 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value
OBP - #100: .4362, only 46 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value
SLG - #100: .5972, only 65 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value
OPS - #100: 1.0148, only 52 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value
WAR - #100: 8.67, only 52 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value

There's no doubt in my mind that things appear to be running hotter in OOTP18 than OOTP16 when it comes to extreme seasons. More testing would help to back this up further, but it pretty much doesn't matter what stat you look at (pitching as well), there appear to be more extreme seasons in OOTP18 than OOTP16. My question is, what has changed that would make this so? The brains behind the game know better than this peon what could've changed between 16 and 18 that would make this so. So I leave it to you guys. I can do more tests if you like, but since this one shows values that are in line with what's being discussed in this thread, I think it's worth checking out.

In general the league-wide numbers look fine: 1968 is deadballish as it should be, and offense surges in expansion years due to watered down pitching as it should. Lots of green (as opposed to red) on the "Historical Simulation Accuracy" page, which suggests things are basically proceeding as they should on a league-wide basis.

01-25-2018, 06:13 PM	#64
actionjackson Hall Of Famer Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Toronto, ON Posts: 6,179	I've just run test sims in both OOTP16 and OOTP18 with the same settings (where possible, obviously that would exclude settings that have been added since OOTP16 finished it's development cycle) over a forty season span (1946-1985) setting the game up to auto-import LTMs for each season as they go whizzing past. I did not tie the stats to one particular season as this thread has been discussing. I wanted to see what would happen with a normal random debut setup. I thought the results were interesting. It appears to me that OOTP18 runs quite a bit hotter than OOTP16 when it comes to extreme seasons. I'll leave it up to the reader to decide whether or not it's an issue. I used Real Stats with 3 year double weighted recalc for both of these test runs. First the results for the OOTP16 test run. These numbers are the number of individual player seasons at or above the figure indicated for the particular metric. They also include instances where the number rounded up to the figure indicated: AVG - .350 or higher - 41 player seasons OBP - .450 or higher - 16 player seasons SLG - .600 or higher - 59 player seasons OPS - 1.050 or higher - 26 player seasons WAR - 10.0 or higher - 12 player seasons Now the results for the OOTP18 test run results. The same conditions apply as in the OOTP16 test run with rounding up etc. AVG - .350 or higher - 70 player seasons OBP - .450 or higher - 53 player seasons SLG - .600 or higher - 97 player seasons OPS - 1.050 or higher - 49 player seasons WAR - 10.0 or higher - 34 player seasons Now for the figures of the last player (rankings run from 1-100, so this is #100) in the rankings in each category in the OOTP18 test run, and how many players exceeded this value in the OOTP16 test run: AVG - #100: .3458, only 55 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value OBP - #100: .4362, only 46 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value SLG - #100: .5972, only 65 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value OPS - #100: 1.0148, only 52 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value WAR - #100: 8.67, only 52 players in OOTP16 managed to exceed this value There's no doubt in my mind that things appear to be running hotter in OOTP18 than OOTP16 when it comes to extreme seasons. More testing would help to back this up further, but it pretty much doesn't matter what stat you look at (pitching as well), there appear to be more extreme seasons in OOTP18 than OOTP16. My question is, what has changed that would make this so? The brains behind the game know better than this peon what could've changed between 16 and 18 that would make this so. So I leave it to you guys. I can do more tests if you like, but since this one shows values that are in line with what's being discussed in this thread, I think it's worth checking out. In general the league-wide numbers look fine: 1968 is deadballish as it should be, and offense surges in expansion years due to watered down pitching as it should. Lots of green (as opposed to red) on the "Historical Simulation Accuracy" page, which suggests things are basically proceeding as they should on a league-wide basis.