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when gives that option, it means it's "close" .. could be on either side of the outcome, so that we can't easily guess..
definitely consider arm strength of the OF in question. over longer-term you'll probably see it's not so automatic of an out. don't run on guys with strong arms unless desperate... even then probably not a good idea. ... i mean if the pitcher is coming up and 2 outs... context can make it a 'better' idea too.
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