Quote:
|
Are the results on the field purely a function of stats and some element of randomness? Or is there some other element involved that determines performance and might have changed to permanently reduce his effectiveness?
|
Results are a function of many contributors: his ratings, opponent's ratings (pitchers and fielders), league totals, randomness aka luck, age, development, talent change randomness settings, morale, coaching, and more, each with their own marginal or greater effect at any given moment in time.
Stats and data guys will offer you more info. We all perceive and address various issues differently, we evaluate players and strategies differently, make judgments about our future actions differently. Even though the groupings may be similar, the individual will always, eventually, betray his uniqueness, if only in private. What am I saying? In this case, I'm saying my 'impression,' having followed a few of your posts and inquiries, is that you value your impressions highly; give them a great deal of weight above all else. I share some of that, so it's not a criticism, just an observation and, even that, just my own.
So many factors play into things, in my personal approach, it's just not quantifiable. Not that it can't be, just that I'm not interested in the work, nor do I have the skills prerequisite to do so. I think what you're seeing here is isolated performance along a continuum of time. Time you haven't given things yet, to develop, better present themselves, offer you more information and/or inspiration to color your impression.
Certainly, intuition and impression can be essential driving forces, dependent on one's style. Some won't offer an opinion on Wil until they've seen four to five seasons. Some, may decide in the blink of an eye, or a single scouting report.
At any rate, that's a meager attempt to answer your question, and an unsolicited assessment of how we make assessments. It's my nature. Apologies, if it's out of place or undesired.
Think your thoughts, gather your impressions. I'd only suggest that, unless it rears its head like a blazing torch pointing you in a direction, ride with it a bit. Measure its longevity and persistence. Then, act. Or gather data to support it. Or take notice of its changes. Sometimes evaluating your evaluations betray personal trends that can be helpful in future decisions or assessments.
Oh, and welcome. You seem to possess and active, reasonable, and approachable voice. That's a good thing for us, I think.
