Thread: Clutch stat
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Old 04-28-2018, 11:55 PM   #71
RonCo
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 10,235
Quote:
Originally Posted by BPS View Post
It would be easy to produce a baseball simulation in which some players were "clutch hitters" but those who "played" the simulation wouldn't be able to see it by a statistical analysis of the output of the simulation. The major role of randomness makes that possible.
I think this is unlikely to be true. Or, if it is, OOTP is not that game. A simulation has some very specific ways to create it's output. If clutch were put in as an algorithm, it would be relatively easy to find it.

I already have, for example, a script that will go through every game log and register pitcher, hitter, and count and tabulate every result (GB/FB/base hit/walk/HR/K) by inning and ballpark. I could take a few hours and expand that to include score and runners on base. Another hour or so and I can put ratings onto the players.

Next thing you know, I can find "classic" clutch situations and tabulate deviation from norm. At that point it's merely a matter of running a couple hundred sims and crunching some numbers and I could find about anything that's in the code.

Finding these things in software like OOTP requires work hours, but they aren't particularly hard to find if you want to.
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