Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
I'm not planning to argue the field of mathematical statistics tonight, but simplifying greatly I suppose...and not to trivialize the work, but the only real impediment to finding the existence of a factor is to have a properly constructed test (not impossible to do with OOTP), and then take enough data (also not hard with a computer sim).  |
There are at least 3 things being discussed:
(1) can one discover any hidden algorithms in OOTP by running enough sims? I'm not sure this is possible but maybe.
(2) is it possible to produce a baseball sim that has clutch hitting but no one can use the output of this sim to provide statistically significant evidence for its existence (and you can't simply run as many sims as you'd like...just like in the real world!). This would be easy to do.
(3) have current studies using real baseball data proven that a clutch hitting skill does not exist? The answer, I think, is no, in part because of what #2 shows. Current studies also fail because they are poorly designed.
I am most interested in #2 and #3. The importance of #2 is that it shows something can exist without generating statistical evidence of its existence. Simple empiricism (only things that have empirical evidence for them exist) does not always hold.