OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - "The System" (Part II): The Pitching Revolution

Prodigal Son · 06-09-2018, 02:09 AM

Part one of this series, from 2012, was entitled: "The System" (or How Leverage Killed Conventional Pitching Wisdom)

http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=219702)

I would like to think that The Foreword below provides useful context and history for the vast majority of readers, but there are those in our community who are already very familiar with The System, and they may decide to proceed past The Foreword to Post #2, which is entirely devoid of context and theoretical underpinnings.

---

INTRODUCTION

It has been over six years since I introduced The System. What is this machination?

It's the future of pitching strategy.

It's a comprehensive system that encompasses everything from the small to the big. From the minutiae of determining which pitcher should enter the game to face the bottom of the lineup in the eighth inning of a game with a four-run lead to the question of whether to sign a star starting pitcher or star outfielder in free agency, The System provides solutions. This is an approach that allows a front office to slash at least 30% of its pitching rotation salary to allocate instead to position players, amateur signings, scouting, and other organizational needs. It can also trade at least 20% of its existing pitching prospect talent to acquire talent in other areas. By trading the hottest commodity in baseball -- above-average pitching prospects -- a team can stack its lineup. All of this can happen while actually increasing the effectiveness of the team's pitching staff.

"If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is," according to the old saying. But what if I told you that anything that sounds too basic to be true is probably terribly inefficient? What if I told you that the best pitchers in baseball spend dozens of innings per year -- millions of dollars worth of work -- throwing pitches in innings that are exceedingly unlikely to affect the outcomes of games? What if I told you that every time a closer comes in with a 2-3 run lead with the bases empty, most often avoiding the most dangerous one-third of the opposing team's lineup, to record an arbitrary "save" statistic, he wastes valuable stamina to do a job that a lesser reliever could do with minimal risk of failure?

What if it might be worth it to reallocate your #2 and/or #3 starting pitcher salaries to downgrade to a certain type of inexpensive starting pitcher, then spend the rest on relief pitcher or position player acquisitions, and in doing so head into every game with the confidence that your team has multiple elite pitchers to take the mound if the game remains close and the offense produces? What if you could jettison your #4 and #5 starting pitcher salaries, and instead acquire one or two good bullpen arms to shut down opposing batters when it matters the most, all while saving money to spend on position player upgrades?

What if I asked: If the first baseball game ever played took place tomorrow, and we eliminated all categories, constraints, and traditions of pitching, how would you manage your favorite team's pitching staff? That's the new world of baseball. Or the old world of System baseball.

In the real world, Sergio Romo recently made news as a reliever who started consecutive games for the Tampa Bay Rays. What if I told you that The System, during a one-season dynasty league run six years ago, started an average to above-average reliever to face the top of a deadly Yankees lineup in a playoff game in 2012, for all of the same reasons? http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...9&postcount=48

Who knows about The System? Who is reading? With the popularity of OOTP, nobody knows for sure, but baseball in 2018 is charging with a full head of steam toward the tenants of The System that were outlined back in 2012. Aside from the obvious nod of sending out relief pitchers to start a game, there are other indicators: Teams using minor league options and the modern 10-day disabled list to rotate slightly above-replacement value players in a 12 - 14 man pitching staff. Pulling starters in the fifth inning or prior with regularity. Pitching "bullpen games" to give the top three members of the starting staff rest and to play matchups.

There are imitators in the fantasy world and the real world, but there is only one System. We will now put it to the test, together, in a way that it has never been tested before. We will set it up to fail, remove any structural advantages, and see what happens. In doing so, we will not focus on whether or not it is dominant, but on whether or not it works. At this level of professional sports, with the world's top talent on the field and in the front office, success is defined on the margins. Will The System hold up? Will it return value?

While I am confident that this approach is revolutionary, this dynasty thread will not be an exercise in ego-stroking. This will be a test run. If the last thread was Alpha testing, and the OOTP Mariners team in it made the playoffs, then testing fundamentally shifted to external / Beta testing, especially when a real MLB team started a reliever and provided reasons in press releases that mirrored The System's tenets.

We have an idea that The System can work, and that the highest levels of baseball are coming around. This thread continues this Beta testing. We will work through this together. A human with a software program can always find a way to "win," but that is not what is going to happen here. We will handicap the human-controlled team to isolate the effects of The System. The goals of this dynasty are as follows:

- To minimize the need for trades (which invite exploitation), it should start with an inaugural draft.

- To start on a below-level playing field. Given the advantage of being a human in an AI-controlled world, we need to pick a below-average payroll team. I've been a Braves fan for years, and OOTP tells me they have the sixth-lowest payroll. Perfect.

- To prove the merits of the system, the team should be immediately competitive. No drafting of prospects, building up the system, and simming years before we go "live." We're taking control of a team out of the gates and trying to win.

- Complete transparency: Facts. Like any dynasty thread, every at-bat won't be mentioned. Yet I will save every game log and box score. If anyone has a question about a game / time period / outcome, just mention it and it will be answered.

- Complete transparency pt. 2: Strategy. I will personally respond to any questions about my decision-making process.

06-09-2018, 02:09 AM	#1
Prodigal Son All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover Posts: 1,635	"The System" (Part II): The Pitching Revolution Part one of this series, from 2012, was entitled: "The System" (or How Leverage Killed Conventional Pitching Wisdom) http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...d.php?t=219702) I would like to think that The Foreword below provides useful context and history for the vast majority of readers, but there are those in our community who are already very familiar with The System, and they may decide to proceed past The Foreword to Post #2, which is entirely devoid of context and theoretical underpinnings. --- INTRODUCTION It has been over six years since I introduced The System. What is this machination? It's the future of pitching strategy. It's a comprehensive system that encompasses everything from the small to the big. From the minutiae of determining which pitcher should enter the game to face the bottom of the lineup in the eighth inning of a game with a four-run lead to the question of whether to sign a star starting pitcher or star outfielder in free agency, The System provides solutions. This is an approach that allows a front office to slash at least 30% of its pitching rotation salary to allocate instead to position players, amateur signings, scouting, and other organizational needs. It can also trade at least 20% of its existing pitching prospect talent to acquire talent in other areas. By trading the hottest commodity in baseball -- above-average pitching prospects -- a team can stack its lineup. All of this can happen while actually increasing the effectiveness of the team's pitching staff. "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is," according to the old saying. But what if I told you that anything that sounds too basic to be true is probably terribly inefficient? What if I told you that the best pitchers in baseball spend dozens of innings per year -- millions of dollars worth of work -- throwing pitches in innings that are exceedingly unlikely to affect the outcomes of games? What if I told you that every time a closer comes in with a 2-3 run lead with the bases empty, most often avoiding the most dangerous one-third of the opposing team's lineup, to record an arbitrary "save" statistic, he wastes valuable stamina to do a job that a lesser reliever could do with minimal risk of failure? What if it might be worth it to reallocate your #2 and/or #3 starting pitcher salaries to downgrade to a certain type of inexpensive starting pitcher, then spend the rest on relief pitcher or position player acquisitions, and in doing so head into every game with the confidence that your team has multiple elite pitchers to take the mound if the game remains close and the offense produces? What if you could jettison your #4 and #5 starting pitcher salaries, and instead acquire one or two good bullpen arms to shut down opposing batters when it matters the most, all while saving money to spend on position player upgrades? What if I asked: If the first baseball game ever played took place tomorrow, and we eliminated all categories, constraints, and traditions of pitching, how would you manage your favorite team's pitching staff? That's the new world of baseball. Or the old world of System baseball. In the real world, Sergio Romo recently made news as a reliever who started consecutive games for the Tampa Bay Rays. What if I told you that The System, during a one-season dynasty league run six years ago, started an average to above-average reliever to face the top of a deadly Yankees lineup in a playoff game in 2012, for all of the same reasons? http://www.ootpdevelopments.com/boar...9&postcount=48 Who knows about The System? Who is reading? With the popularity of OOTP, nobody knows for sure, but baseball in 2018 is charging with a full head of steam toward the tenants of The System that were outlined back in 2012. Aside from the obvious nod of sending out relief pitchers to start a game, there are other indicators: Teams using minor league options and the modern 10-day disabled list to rotate slightly above-replacement value players in a 12 - 14 man pitching staff. Pulling starters in the fifth inning or prior with regularity. Pitching "bullpen games" to give the top three members of the starting staff rest and to play matchups. There are imitators in the fantasy world and the real world, but there is only one System. We will now put it to the test, together, in a way that it has never been tested before. We will set it up to fail, remove any structural advantages, and see what happens. In doing so, we will not focus on whether or not it is dominant, but on whether or not it works. At this level of professional sports, with the world's top talent on the field and in the front office, success is defined on the margins. Will The System hold up? Will it return value? While I am confident that this approach is revolutionary, this dynasty thread will not be an exercise in ego-stroking. This will be a test run. If the last thread was Alpha testing, and the OOTP Mariners team in it made the playoffs, then testing fundamentally shifted to external / Beta testing, especially when a real MLB team started a reliever and provided reasons in press releases that mirrored The System's tenets. We have an idea that The System can work, and that the highest levels of baseball are coming around. This thread continues this Beta testing. We will work through this together. A human with a software program can always find a way to "win," but that is not what is going to happen here. We will handicap the human-controlled team to isolate the effects of The System. The goals of this dynasty are as follows: - To minimize the need for trades (which invite exploitation), it should start with an inaugural draft. - To start on a below-level playing field. Given the advantage of being a human in an AI-controlled world, we need to pick a below-average payroll team. I've been a Braves fan for years, and OOTP tells me they have the sixth-lowest payroll. Perfect. - To prove the merits of the system, the team should be immediately competitive. No drafting of prospects, building up the system, and simming years before we go "live." We're taking control of a team out of the gates and trying to win. - Complete transparency: Facts. Like any dynasty thread, every at-bat won't be mentioned. Yet I will save every game log and box score. If anyone has a question about a game / time period / outcome, just mention it and it will be answered. - Complete transparency pt. 2: Strategy. I will personally respond to any questions about my decision-making process. Last edited by Prodigal Son; 06-09-2018 at 03:05 AM.