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Old 06-17-2018, 11:47 AM   #6
NoOne
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i'm excluding anything related to TCR or anything we cannot know or predict with accuracy. to keep it simple, excluding personality too. work ethic and intelligence are important to weigh, though.

if i reference rounds and when stuff goes away, it's based on ~39round draft with 30 teams.. size will affect what i say. may be different for your league, but similar patterns will exist.

i have a well thought out hierarchy of player quality based on ratings and roles etc. when a RP is equivalent to a batting or sp prosect. what i consider batting and sp equivalents. not whimsically choosen, but over time slowly evolved in ootp. (how personality fits in too) i have an extremely high threshold for elite prospects -- then ranges of quality i view as equivalents get a bit larger as you go down. that creates the framework for implementing best player available. while it's something that should remain consistent, you may tweak your preferences over time to maximize results.

the elite-tier prospects are 99% gone by pick 10-20ish most years -- excludes small chance all teams underscouted same player, and if you did too that's a needle in a haystack anyway

mlb sp are probably tougher to find than mlb batters and more likely to be gone by 'next' pick. RP run out last. that stuff is more important in a deep draft class and considering probabilty they are as good as they look... most years you have ~1.5 good chances at a solid mlb player, then it's a total crapshoot after that. a bad draft is easy to have. don't give up on any experiment after 5 drafts. if you average 1-2 sold mlb players each year, it's not the draft holding you back. (50/50 on the 1.5 good chances and then luck boils down to ~2/year, lol, and not speaking of pine-riders, rather everyday players for more than a few years)

by round 2-5 you'll be picking just for MiL. needle in the haystack surprises are not skill nor does any method to dig them up consistently exist and we cannot predict TCR. So, after the mlb quality is gone i am looking to stock my MiL with solid AAA-quality potential.... by round 7-12ish this becomes difficult. you may find batters that can reach AA, but SP/RP will inevitably be A-ball capped at best (1 or both movement and controll will be ~1/200)

diversity in assets is good to match trade partner depth weaknesses, plus more likely to fill a variety future mlb needs at a cheap price. i may lean sp in first round, but inevitably mix in batters too. context dictates. however, you don't need "5" of any other 1 position... heavy SP drafts should be the norm if you want a winning MiL system.

i consistently trade players before FA or old age. i exclusively trade for prospects unless i really screw up and need a mlb player "now." between those returns, the draft and IAFA, i typically have a bunch of trading assets. at the same time i am consolidating those down to a stream of high-end needed future positions. i aim for their development to be ~2 years before the current mlb players is a FA. it's a large enough leeway that at worst causes a little polishing at the mlb if 2 years late.

even if you don't fill all needs at all times, you have an inevitably cheap team most years and can over pay a short-term FA to keep their years down... heck that's a bonus in prospects too because i typically trade them just like any other vet, eventually.

don't like all the trades? even the calvalcade of moderate to good quality prospects and an occasional stud should be a playoff caliber team consistently.

Last edited by NoOne; 06-17-2018 at 11:53 AM.
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