OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - "The System" (Part II): The Pitching Revolution

Prodigal Son · 06-22-2018, 02:24 AM

We know that I bring in the best pitchers in high-leverage situations. Of course, we also know I bring them in early in games regularly, and depending on rest and number of pitches thrown, a HL will often stay on to keep pitching even after the high leverage situation is resolved.

Thus, my HL's have high, but not astronomical, average leverage (pLi) statistics. Giles is at 1.73, Doolittle 1.64, and Feliz 1.53.

Ohtani and Ziegler, our better long arms (Ziegler is a reliever but is very pitch-efficient and is on pace for over 90 innings) are tied at 1.09, which is high for pitchers used in starting pitching situations. Among 176 qualified pitchers on FanGraphs in MLB as of 6/21/2018 (this excludes most closers / relievers), a 1.09 would rank 14th. Just for context.

So I'm happy about using our good arms in the right situations. But here's the really interesting thing: let's sort the other direction.

Jordan Lyles has a pLi of .61 in 13 IP (projects to 45 IP for the season). Richard Bleier has a pLi of .65 in 16 IP (projects to 55 IP for the season). McCarthy is on pace to pitch 144 innings of pLi .81 baseball. Neshek is on pace for 93 IP at .84.

For context, the lowest pLi score in MLB among the 176 qualified pitchers is Corey Kluber's .76. All of the four pitchers just named would be in the bottom five in pLi in MLB in 2018, if qualified. (Well, not if they were all in the bottom five, because then they'd be bumping each other out, but I digress...)

How does this translate to traditional counting stats? Well, Ohtani is 8-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 49.1 IP. Doolittle is 6-2 with 1 save and 4 holds in, get this, 23.2 IP. Feliz is 0-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 18.2 IP. So Ohtani is on pace for stats along the lines of 28 wins, 11 losses, 4 saves and 10 holds in 165 IP. Doolittle is on pace for 80 IP, 21-7 record, 3 saves, and 14 holds!

This is really the bread-and-butter of The System. Every time a replacement-level or well below-average pitcher throws a low leverage inning, an angel gets its wings.

ETA: Man, these guys look exhausted! Oh wait, I need to advance the day. Had me worried for a minute...

06-22-2018, 02:24 AM	#18
Prodigal Son All Star Starter Join Date: May 2006 Location: Iahiodo a.k.a. the flyover Posts: 1,635	A Little on Leverage We know that I bring in the best pitchers in high-leverage situations. Of course, we also know I bring them in early in games regularly, and depending on rest and number of pitches thrown, a HL will often stay on to keep pitching even after the high leverage situation is resolved. Thus, my HL's have high, but not astronomical, average leverage (pLi) statistics. Giles is at 1.73, Doolittle 1.64, and Feliz 1.53. Ohtani and Ziegler, our better long arms (Ziegler is a reliever but is very pitch-efficient and is on pace for over 90 innings) are tied at 1.09, which is high for pitchers used in starting pitching situations. Among 176 qualified pitchers on FanGraphs in MLB as of 6/21/2018 (this excludes most closers / relievers), a 1.09 would rank 14th. Just for context. So I'm happy about using our good arms in the right situations. But here's the really interesting thing: let's sort the other direction. Jordan Lyles has a pLi of .61 in 13 IP (projects to 45 IP for the season). Richard Bleier has a pLi of .65 in 16 IP (projects to 55 IP for the season). McCarthy is on pace to pitch 144 innings of pLi .81 baseball. Neshek is on pace for 93 IP at .84. For context, the lowest pLi score in MLB among the 176 qualified pitchers is Corey Kluber's .76. All of the four pitchers just named would be in the bottom five in pLi in MLB in 2018, if qualified. (Well, not if they were all in the bottom five, because then they'd be bumping each other out, but I digress...) How does this translate to traditional counting stats? Well, Ohtani is 8-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 49.1 IP. Doolittle is 6-2 with 1 save and 4 holds in, get this, 23.2 IP. Feliz is 0-3 with 1 save and 3 holds in 18.2 IP. So Ohtani is on pace for stats along the lines of 28 wins, 11 losses, 4 saves and 10 holds in 165 IP. Doolittle is on pace for 80 IP, 21-7 record, 3 saves, and 14 holds! This is really the bread-and-butter of The System. Every time a replacement-level or well below-average pitcher throws a low leverage inning, an angel gets its wings. ETA: Man, these guys look exhausted! Oh wait, I need to advance the day. Had me worried for a minute... Attached Images Last edited by Prodigal Son; 06-22-2018 at 02:33 AM.