The Braves rolled through most of May, compiling a record of 14-5 from May 1 - 21, but then the wheels came off, with the team inexplicably going on a 2-9 stretch from May 22 until the amateur draft on June 4.
With exactly 60 games completed, this is a great opportunity to take inventory of the roster and plan strategically for the future. Let's look at the season to-date:
The Good
- We're currently 2nd in the Wild Card race and would be looking at the playoffs if the season ended today.
- We are leading the league in several major offensive categories and have a well-balanced offense with a lot of power, some speed, and different types and handednesses of hitters. This isn't an easy lineup for anyone to face.
- We've suffered no season-ending injuries. Several guys have missed time or had day-to-day injuries, but so far we've avoided the big blow.
- Cody Bellinger. He's cooled off a bit from an insane start, but he has an OPS of 1.075 with 26 home runs through 60 games. This guy was worth the team's #2 pick for sure, and is outplaying #1 pick Aaron Judge and his pedestrian .795 OPS and 12 HR.
- There are some large dead weight contracts in the organization, but Starlin Castro ($16 mil), Brandon McCarthy ($9 mil), and Brad Ziegler ($8 mil) all are in their final years and are still playing respectably. Jed Lowrie ($10.5 mil) is fading fast, but he's signed just through next season. Kris Davis, Ken Giles, and some others are arbitration-eligible, but they're already have substantial arbitration-awarded salaries this year, so there shouldn't be massive jumps / surprises. We can go fishing a little bit at the trade deadline, winter meetings, and/or free agency.
- I've been happy with the development of some prospects. The team's top prospect, Jonathan India, is still a ways off from solving our 3B needs, but outfielder Juan Soto is coming along great (55/50/50 current ratings at 19 years old). We have a crowded outfield, so he's blocked, but we might have to make room soon.
- Trade pieces. We have some overcrowded outfield talent to trade away to make room for Soto and have some valuable third basemen under team control. We can potentially use these pieces to bring in an upgrade at SS, 2B, or C. Several teams are interested in Maikel Franco, whose profile I have attached. He's a solid player (2.5 stars) under team control forever, and at worst he shapes up to make a platoon vsLHP contributor, so the risk is low with him. I have to decide whether he is our 3B of the near future, or whether he's trade bait. Tough call. I have my doubts whether India (also attached) will ever materialize. He's 21.5 years old and languishing in A-ball.
The Bad
- The pitching has been
exactly bad. Not terrible, not average, but bad. At least it has been cheap.
- The offense has been plagued with strikeouts. While strikeouts in and of themselves aren't the end of the world, it would be nice to have one or two more good contact hitters. The team could use a true leadoff hitter (Inciarte is doing ok, but he's not ideal) along with one more contact/gap bat toward the bottom of the lineup.
- The catcher spot is lacking. Evan Gattis has an OPS of .693 (OBP of .297) and is mediocre with the glove. We'll have to see if he can post respectable numbers, or else this will be a big need position heading into the trade deadline or next season.
- Middle infield glut. Starlin Castro, Jed Lowrie, Ian Happ, Deven Marrero. What is going to come of this? Castro is hitting well, but he's an expensive bat with a fair (at best) glove. Lowrie is fading. Happ is a prospect with big power but is looking at being sent down with his .196 avg despite jacking 13 bombs in 209 AB. Marrero is an all glove, no bat flyswatter with a 40 contact rating, according to our scouts. He's getting the majority of the work now, by default. We might have to make a run at Andrelton Simmons, who is on the block, with the risk that he ends up being a rental.
The Ugly
- The defense is atrocious. Slick-fielding Marrero at SS and Inciarte at CF have not remedied the issue. It's puzzling, as all players have the tools to field their positions. Ratings for the highest inning fielders from 2-9 positions go: 40 (C), 65, 50, 40 (3B), 70 (SS), 50, 65 (CF), 65. Not top of the league, but performing so terribly seems inexplicable.
- The top bullpen arms are demonstrably below expectations. All-world, five-star closer Ken Giles not only has an ERA of 4.23, he has surrendered 10 BB and 6 HR in 27.2 IP for a FIP of 4.89! HL pitcher Michael Feliz has tossed 28 IP of
7.07 ERA ball with 20 walks! When these guys don't pitch well, The System suffers major internal injuries. Hopefully they get back on track.