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I'm fairly new to OOTP (but instantly addicted!) having played for only a few months but this issue baffled me for some time. I think it works like this (though, by now, you may have already figured it out):
Extension funds are calculated by adding next season's projected budget and next season's previous balance and then subtracting next season's projected expenses.
Next year's previous balance is calculated by subtracting the current season's projected profit/loss from the current season's total balance.
So if, for example, your projected gate revenue for the current season decreases or increases, so will your extension money. The AI may also periodically recalculate next season's projected budget up or down which will result in a corresponding change to extension money. So, basically, anything that changes the current season's bottom line and/or next season's projected expenses will cause a change in the money available for extensions.
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