Originally Posted by BirdWatcher
With a team that is still just fighting to stay around or slightly above .500, you find yourself thinking ahead to the future and daydreaming about what might be.
I often find myself listing out a possible future lineup and estimating, trying to find some balance between what is realistic but also what is possible if things break right, what kind of numbers my players might produce. I've gone back and looked at these later and some, especially for young players with little to no major league experience, were way off. Others, though, are starting to come true (Chad Brown, Ruben Souffront, Antonio Puente, etc.)
This morning I find myself putting together just such a list, thinking about what might be in 5 seasons.
And this is what that list looks like:
1- Tanner Yurek, secondbase: .265-.280 BA, .345-.365 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-23 HR's, 12-24 stolen bases, above average defense."
Yurek is having a bounce-back season in 1969 and his projected numbers for this season line up pretty well with what I predicted above. His slash line would be .274/.384/.444. He projects to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, 16 HR's and to steal 16 bases (with 8 caught stealing.) Clearly lower on extra base hits, but much better OBP then I predicted.
"2- Chad Brown, shortstop: .315-.330 BA, .345-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-12 triples, 4-8 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."
Brown is not hitting for average as much this year as he has at times in the past and as predicted. His slash line projects to .279/.312/.362. He projects for 23 doubles, 6 triples, 6 HR's, and 25 stolen bases (10 cs.)
Even if he raised the batting average, it looks like I might have been overly-optimistic about his OBP. Then again, he is still young and developing. Pretty close otherwise. And hasn't won a gold glove award yet, but looks like he will in the near future.
"3- Ruben Souffront, rightfield: .320-.340 BA, ..355-.375 OBP, 30-40 doubles, 8-15 triples, 10-22 HR's, 35-70 stolen bases, above average defense."
Ruben projects to have a slash line of .306/.324/.453 this season. So, not too far off and he is still young and improving. He projects to hit 16 doubles, 14 triples, 8 HR's and to steal 47 bases (with 14 caught stealing.) Like many Brewers this year, he isn't hitting as many doubles as I would expect. And it doesn't appear that he is ever going to develop 20+ HR power, but the low end of the range predicted above is certainly within reach.
"4- Antonio Puente, leftfield: .270-.285 BA, .350-.370 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 3-8 triples, 30-45 HR's, 10-15 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."
Puente's projected slash line for 1969 is .248/.407/.435, with 12 doubles, 2 triples, 23 HR's, and 18 stolen bases (with a poor 16 caught stealing.) It is starting to look like Puente will hit for a fairly low average consistently, but his OBP skills are much better than I could have even expected. Whether all of those walks are impacting his HR numbers negatively is another question. Even the pre-season predictions this year had him hitting 36 HR's and he will need to get very hot in the second half to get to that number. As always, great defense though and on pace for 5.1 WAR. Stealing more bases then expected, but with a very poor success rate. Might need to instruct him to not be quite so aggressive.
"5- Bobby Erbakan, firstbase: .300-.330 BA, .355-.375 OBP, 25-35 doubles, 5-10 triples, 15-25 HR's, 15-25 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."
Erbakan is still very young and has quite a bit of development potential yet. He has been hitting better lately after going through quite a prolonged slump. His projected slash line is .257/.279/.338. He is projected to hit 18 doubles, 8 triples, 2 HR's, and to steal 2 bases (while being caught 4 times.) As with Souffront, it is looking more and more like Erbakan will never be a power hitter, but he should get a good number of extra-base hits. He is a great fielder, but at this stage his bat and legs are not providing consistent good results.
"6- Jose Careaga, thirdbase: .280-.295 BA, .340-.355 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 10-20 HR's, 0-3 stolen bases, above average defense."
Careaga is currently at AAA and doing well enough. He does not look like a top prospect at this point, but our scouting staff still sees him as a future above average thirdbaseman. Time will tell. In the meantime, Jared Stephenson holds down this position. His projected slash line this year: .255/.277/.382. He is projected to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, 16 HR's and to steal 2 bases (without being caught once.) Like Erbakan, this OBP is pretty horrible. But Stephenson does provide some pop in the lineup and is a very fine defensive thirdbaseman.
"7- Pat Rondeau, centerfield: .295-.320 BA, .330-.350 OBP, 30-45 doubles, 10-15 triples, 2-5 HR's, 30-65 stolen bases, gold glove caliber defense."
Well, these predictions were made prior to the Brewers signing free agent superstar centerfielder Ryan Rodgers. So let's look at Rodgers first. His slash line projection: .289/.441/.342. He projects to hit 14 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HR's, while swiping 6 bases (with 2 CS.) Rodgers has been slumping at the plate for the better part of a month and this is a very low batting average for him. But, like Puente, his OBP is world class. I'd like to see a lot more extra-base hits from Rodgers. His defense remains superb.
As for Mr. Rondeau, who backs up at all 3 OF positions: his projected slash line is .300/.326/.396 with 18 doubles, 12 triples, and zero HR's, while stealing 27 bases (being caught trying 14 times.) Fairly on target at this point, with the exception of doubles, which many Brewers are under-achieving on this year, and HR's, which I pretty sure over-shot in the predictions. Great defender.
"8- Sam Rogers, catcher: .245-.265 BA, .345-.360 OBP, 15-22 doubles, 1-3 triples, 5-8 HR's, 0-4 stolen bases, average to slightly above average defense."
Sam is long gone. His replacement, Brett Wood, has had a dismal year and has the worst WAR on the team. Wood projects to hit .154/.222/.204 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 HRs and zero stolen bases (0 attempts.)
Backup catcher Joey Townsend is slightly better: .196/.300/.276, 8 doubles, 0 triples, 4 HR's, O SB (2 CS). Much better OBP and some extra-base power. His WAR projects to 0.2, which is at least much better than Wood's projected -1.1.
"Now obviously a lot can happen and the chances of all of this coming true are slim. Then again, some of these players might develop even better than this and other players might come along that take the place of the players listed above. On the plus side, most of these players are young enough that 5 years down the road they are likely to still be in Brewers uniforms. And two- Puente and Yurek, are already signed to contracts that extend beyond that time frame. Sam Rogers will be 33 five seasons from now, so hard to know how aging will affect him or if he will still be with the team. I am far more confident of the possibility of these projections coming true for the first four slots in the lineup. It is much harder to project yet how Erbakan and Rondeau will develop and Careaga might flame out completely or be far less solid in the big leagues than this. Then again, he might take another step forward and become a star.
The HR numbers are probably a bit overly optimistic, with the hopes that Erbakan and Souffront, to name two, will develop more power as they age. Both are larger men who are expected to make good contact and it isn't totally unreasonable, based also upon current potential ratings, that they at least become average or slightly above average homerun hitters. Some of the stolen base numbers might, if anything, almost be too conservative. As we progress the statistical modifiers of this league will be heading into the mid-70's and early 80's and stolen bases numbers overall should be pretty robust. And with especially Souffront and Rondeau having speed/sb/baserunning ratings that are at the top of the scale, they could put up some real Tim Raines/Ricky Henderson kinds of seasons.
And given current trends and ratings it is probably not unreasonable to expect at least a few of these players- Brown, Puente, Erbakan- to win some gold glove awards.
I also like the balance of this lineup. It contains 2 switch-hitters (Brown and Careaga), 3 lefthanded hitters (Yurek, Puente, Rondeau), and 3 righthanded hitters (Souffront, Erbakan, Rogers.)
Now, pitching, that's another story. Given the current makeup of team and minor league prospects, the bullpen could be quite strong for the foreseeable future. The starting rotation though is another question entirely. And the area most likely to need some infusions from free agency and/or trades.
But I like the looks of the core of this team, at least in terms of position players. And hey, one can always dream, right?
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