[BirdWatcher]

I find myself, as I do often these days, thinking about the improbable Harry Lyerly and what he has done so far in his brief time with the Brewers.
Part of what I find myself wondering today is what real-life MLB pitchers might have put up similar career stats in terms of HR/9 and K/9 as Lyerly has done in his admittedly very small career sample size thus far.

Now let's start with the obvious caveat here: Lyerly has pitched a grand total of 69.2 innings at the major league level over 9 starts. There could be a lot of random noise and luck involved in these numbers. In those innings he has allowed just under 1.3 HR's every 9 innings pitched while striking out 9.6 batters per 9. The HR's per 9 isn't good, but it isn't absolutely disastrous either. And the 9.6 K/9 puts him in elite company, especially for a starting pitcher. Now obviously, given more innings that HR/9 could shoot up to 2.0 or worse and the K/9 could certainly drop to a more human 7.5 or so. On the other hand, all indications are that Lyerly still has room for development, with expected improvements in his third pitch and his control and even some possible improvement in his movement. So it's not completely unreasonable to conclude that his numbers might improve rather than declining.

So let's pretend they stay about where they are. (Again, for right now I'm just talking about HR/9 and K/9. His WHIP has been quite good for young pitcher and thus far he has shown good control and all indications are that he could develop elite control, all of which are not unpromising indications.)
What real-life pitchers could he compare to?

I was unable to find any pitchers with career K/9 numbers equivalent to Lyerly's thus far AND a HR/9 as high as Lyerly's. But there were a few that weren't too far off. Oliver Perez was probably the closest comparison at 1.2 HR/9 and 9.5 K/9. But of course Perez' K/9 numbers are boosted by years pitching out of the bullpen as well.
There is Carlos Carrasco: 1.0 HR/9, 9.3 K/9
Or Chris Archer: 1.0 HR/9, 9.3 K/9
On the higher K/9 side we have Max Scherzer: 1.0 HR/9, 10.4 K/9
And Kerry Wood: 1.0 HR/9, 10.3 K/9.

Now an obvious issue here is what the league environment was/is for most of these pitchers. We are talking about climates where HR numbers and K numbers are high.
Lyerly pitches in a 1986 statistical environment at this time. (WPK is currently in 1969, but statistical modifiers are 1986. I'd have to look closer at the league to see how in line, given the talent pool in the WPK, numbers actually are with 1986.)
So for Lyerly his HR/9 numbers are probably even worse, compared to league average, than most of these real-life pitchers. Though it should be noted too that he pitches his home games in the most HR friendly park in the WPK (and has pitched about half of his 9 starts in Denver) so that mitigates things a bit.
And it likely makes his K/9 even more impressive.

Can't really say what my point is here.
Just something I find myself thinking about today.
It will be interesting what path Lyerly's career takes.