[BirdWatcher]

With Opening Day here (a handful of teams have already opened the season, and I'll surely be playing the Brewers season opener tonight), I thought I'd step back and discuss a few things that might impact this new season.

First of all, I believe I've mentioned in the past that before each season starts I use an analog process to determine what MLB season the WPK statistical modifiers will be based upon. I use a 20 season range from 1972 to 1991.
This provides 2 chances out of 20 for an outlier statistical season- 1972 on the low offense, great pitching side and 1987 on the high offense, lots of HR's side. Up to now the WPK has leaned a bit more to the low offensive output end of the spectrum, with a few seasons being positively pitching dominated.
When I rolled the 20-sided die last night to determine what 1973 would look like I rolled a 16. Which means the WPK will look something like 1987 MLB statistically this season. This should be interesting.

What does it mean for the Brewers?
Well, for a few Brewers it could definitely mean trouble. I would expect that this is the year Harry Lyerly's poor movement rating catches up with him. It could be a long year for poor Harry, especially as the pre-season projections/predictions seem to indicate that the offensive ramp up will be greater in the MGL than in the SJL. And heaven help him when he faces the Phoenix Speed Devils, who have several lefthanded power hitters in the middle of their lineup (they are projected to hit over 200 HR's as a team in 1973.)
A few other Brewer pitchers also could have some long ball issues. Steve Green, in spite of having a fine movement rating, has shown a propensity to give up HR's in the past and it will be interesting to see how it works out for him this year.

And while the Brewers have a few young players who are starting to show signs of developing power- Joe McPhillips and Jonathan Koch, in particular, though Mike Foster could chip in with double digits as well- overall we are not a power hitting club. Pre-season predictions (I will post the details later) do show the Brewers with the highest batting average in the MGL, and a pretty average number of runs scored. And we do have a number of good gap hitters with speed, so if we can even just achieve a slightly below average number of HR's, we could compete. Our pitching is predicted to remain near the top.

Spoiler alert: the pre-season predictions have Denver finishing 3rd, with 90 wins. If I am understanding correctly how this works in the game, this is likely without factoring in one of our most valuable players- Bobby Erbakan, who is currently on the IL. On the other hand, the predictions show our one hitter among the top 10 in the league being Andrew Kennedy, who is currently the starter at first in place of Erbakan. I have always been high on Kennedy and consider him probably our best pure hitter so I will try to get him plenty of playing time once Erbakan returns. It's a good problem to have, but the challenge is fitting in Erbakan, Kennedy, and Ryan Rodgers into essentially two spots on the diamond. Rodgers can still play a decent center field so he will probably spell youngster Joe McPhillips there quite a bit so that Kennedy gets enough time in left when he's not giving Erbakan a day off at first. Kennedy is also okay in right, but with the addition of Cesar Grajeda and what with trying to ensure Pat Rondeau gets some playing time, this doesn't help much.

I expect the Brewers to compete again this season. Can we reclaim the top spot in the MGL? Impossible to say right now. So much will likely depend upon injuries, especially as some of our close competitors do have some key players who are injury prone. I would stack our starting rotation up against anyone's in the league- even with the possible Lyerly issue this season- and our bullpen is solid if not spectacular. Not as good as the Phoenix bullpen and maybe 1 or 2 others, but better than most.
Our defense should once again be among the best in the league, especially up the middle. (Jonathan Koch looked particularly impressive in the pre-season and if he can hit enough to hold on to the starting job, we should be better up the middle than ever. And with the amazing Oscar Vargas once again providing backup at second, short, and third, we have late inning coverage that is nearly unparalleled.)
Our offense will get on base- with good batting average and OBP skills. We will hit plenty of extra base hits. Just not so many that clear the fence. We have decent team speed, but we aren't expected to be at the top in stolen bases like we used to be in earlier years.

I think we can win the MGL, but I anticipate it being a tight race. The Los Angeles Spinners are the pre-season favorite, with the power-hitting (and dominant bullpen) Phoenix Speed Devils ranked next.

It should be fun.
And it all starts later tonight!