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Originally Posted by SpacePope
Is the goal of your formula to predict run production?
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Yes.
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If your goal is just to predict run production, however, can you really do better than just dividing runs produced by plate appearances?
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The trick is figuring out what "runs produced" means, based the player's statistics for the season.
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Depending on what you're using it for, it might also matter how you count runs produced. If you use RBI + R - HR, you double count non-home runs when totaling for your whole team.
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RBI and R are not too useful as ingredients, since they depend too much on the quality of the team around the player, i.e. they don't isolate the player's individual value enough. There are much better ways of going about this by assigning run values to the outcomes that the player produces (which is what wOBA does, but it leaves out certain important aspects of a player's overall offensive value).