[NoOne]

i find them early as possible... then, look again later for the guys that slip through the cracks during FA... the surprise cast-offs that maybe had too high of a demand to start. Sometimes you can sign a guy early easily, but if you wait for the big dominos to fall before looking at the small potatoes you can end up with a bidding war with more teams that have previously lost out on bigger targets.

Timing is key. so, if i see a low demand early and it's a need, i jump on it. no concern over tradition over whimsical reasoning.

it's all about what the AI doesn't value. so, it can't be too obvious, or they won't miss it. Sometimes an obviously high-rated guy is a deal, but more often you're looking for some combination of ratings that don't often equate to success as easily.

i don't mind fip, i just think it's mis-callibrated in its current state, like war and some other metrics, but especially anything dealing with defense or tries to normalize for defense and other factors -- the data is lacking and it is more about people's feelings right now. they warp it by how they set it up, the math is of course uncaring. i think this is great info for a broad view of things, but you cannot use this as "the" reason to choose between player 1 and X.

hr/9, k/9 and bb/9 have nothing to do with defense and probably have a stronger correlation. parks matter, of course, but that's easier to normalize. the data exists and collected already that is pertinent. we don't have all players reaction times, field-running speeds, and how efficent of a line they take to the ball etc etc.. so how can you analyze defense with any confidence or expect it to be meaningful? (lack of historical, and therfore small sample size at best right now -- think statcast is measuring this stuff, nowadays, but only for ~5 years? not long)

for a batter... it's about the role i am looking to fill. is this a leadoff guy? then i am less concerned about BA and more concerned about OBP (not obp, but bb-rate and hit-rate, obviously weight the hit-rate more, hence obp isn't accurate on its own). I'm no so concerned about power for a leadoff guy.... i'm taking the guy that can score the most runs.

if it's a slot in the order that needs to drive in runs, i sacrifice bb-rate for power... and weight BA a bit more.

bottom of the barrel pick-ups are not really going to fit any of this, unless incredibly lucky. You are more likely going to pick the extremely high walk rate (.250 / .340) and some s%$ BA for 5million over a ~.270/.300 guy. i don't know where the break-even is, but the difference in obp must be greater than the difference in BA, because hits are worth more than walks.

if you know the value of the various things that relate to scoring runs (or stopping them on pitching/def side), then it's very easy to pick out which sub-5M guy is the best for that role. Role on your team affects weights of everything, too. What you can't worry about is if some lesser-rated guy you almost picked has some crazy lucky year.

you picked the side of the coin with a higher percentage.. that's all you can do... how it crumbles is out of your control.