Thread: Yordan Alvarez
View Single Post
Old 09-25-2019, 09:56 AM   #30
Maxfire5
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by steamrollers View Post
His “career” numbers? He is in his second season and considered one of the best young pitchers in the game. You talk like he is a ten year vet. Yes there are some numbers that aren’t necessarily the absolute elite while others are dominating. And that regression saw him go another 7 IP with 11 K’s and just 1 hit Tuesday. Yet one of the most dominating pitchers in the game with a historic second half basically only seen a couple times in the history of the game will likely end the season with a throwaway silver card. He is a perfect example of some major flaws for live cards. He could give up 10 runs in his first playoff start and it wouldn’t change the fact that at minimum this years live card should be solidly a gold and in reality a diamond. They had a chance to make up for the miss on his card with the POTM and still made it too low.
I know you're a homer. I get that. I am too. I think Soler should be rated higher. I think Whit who has the most hits in baseball by a large margin since 2018 should be better than a middle silver. I don't disagree that he should be higher than a silver, but I don't think think he's anything like a diamond/perfect. That's why his POTM card which more heavily weights current stats is still a low gold.

My point about years of data include his minor league years too. Sorry, should have mentioned that. 5 years of data(including minor leagues) suggest this is a career low for BABIP which just got lower. Pitchers *generally* can't control BABIP, so that's expected to normalize. BABIP doesn't normally go down as you up through the minor leagues and into the majors. Go and compare his stat lines to Gerrit Cole. Cole has a better K/9, better bb/9, nearly double the K/BB ratio. Cole has a higher BABIP, lower left on base percentage, lower FIP.

If you want to consider that a pitcher *does* have more control over balls in play, as opposed to the type of batter and hitters profile, we can look at some other things. Cole is generating less hard contact. Cole has a SIERA of 2.62. Flaherty has of 3.69. That's a *huge* difference. Cole's xFIP is 2.46 versus 3.67 for Flaherty. From a FIP- standpoint, Cole has a 54, Flaherty has an 82, so cole is 46% better than league average, Flaherty is 18% better.

League wise, here's the rankings with players 1 or 2 above and below him for these categories.

From a SIERA standpoint, Flaherty is on par with Kershaw, Matthew Boyd, and Lucas Giolito.

From an xFIP standpoint, he's on par with Lucas Giolito, Kyle Gibson, and Robbie Ray.

From an xFIP- standpoint, he's on par with Kyle Gibson, Matthew Boyd, and Sonny Gray.


I honestly don't know those cards off the top of my head, but they aren't ringing a bell as upper golds and diamonds, except Kershaw who has dramatically fallen down the ratings.

Every projection has regression for him expected. It doesn't happen on one start. Thank you for kindly pointing out my regression for him and him having a great start. If he exceeds the expected regression, great. Regardless, this dataset will help projections for next year.
__________________
Main Team, $100


F2P Pack Only Team


F2P Missouri Theme Team
Maxfire5 is offline   Reply With Quote