JUST ENJOY THE MINUTE, MEN. NO ONE KNOWS HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.
by Figment Sporting Journal columnist Jiggs McGee
I wouldn't have bet a wooden nickel that two weeks into the season the Boston Minutemen would have the best record in baseball, but lo and behold there they are, sitting atop the Federal Association with a 10-3 record and looking down on everyone, not just in the Fed but also the Continental Association. Pitching, and to a lesser degree defense, is the early story in Beantown but my immediate reaction would be to say things will balance out and Boston will come crashing back down to earth. However, seeing that 5 of those 6 wins came over the powerful Philadelphia Keystones cause me to pause and think about it a little more.
The Philadelphia Keystones - tied for third most runs scored in either league with 80 - dropped 5 of 6 games to Boston. The Keystones just destroyed Pittsburgh pitching, scoring 46 runs in 6 games against the Miners, but were held to 26 in 6 games with Boston. Now that may say more about Pittsburgh's lack of pitching than Boston's success but the Minutemen arms certainly seem to be doing the job early. Add in what in the early going is the best defense (best zone rating and efficiency and 4th fewest errors in either league) in the game and you have a recipe, admittedly one that is not used often in the homer happy Federal Association, but a recipe nonetheless that can lead to success in any league.
The question surrounding Boston is can they keep it up? In the preseason predictions three of the four prognosticators including yours truly tabbed Boston to finish 7th in the Fed while the fourth, Percy Sutherland, had them dead last. A lack of offense was the most often cited reason but clearly no one expected their pitching to be this good. It is early, but the Minutemen appear to be channeling their inner Philadelphia Sailors right now.
Let's look at the 5 starters, where they came from, what they are doing now and perhaps we can extrapolate what the rest of the season might hold.
VERDO BURT
The 30 year old had two very strong outings and one average one. The average one came on opening day when he went the distance in a 5-4 loss to Philadelphia. He would also pitch a complete game in his second start, with better results, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits to beat Washington 4-3. While the Minutemen lost his third start in 12 innings, Burt was equally impressive as in his previous meeting with the Eagles, throwing 11 innings of 8 hit ball and allowing 3 earned runs.
Not bad for a pitcher who was exiled to the Boston bullpen a year ago after losing 20 games each of his 2 previous seasons with the Minutemen. He is 101-140 over his career and the expectation, with a career WHIP of 1.47 and ERA+ below 100 each of the past three seasons, is that Burt will come back down to earth. His WHIP in 3 starts is an impressive 1.14 but you have to think that won't last.
JACK HOLLAND
Holland has been a dependable 10-15 win guy for the Minutemen for a decade but suddenly he is pitching like old Double Al. The 34 year old lefthander is 2-0 with a 1.88 era and a 246 ERA+ in his three starts this season. It is hard to believe, but not completely out of the realm of possibility that Holland is taking a giant step forward this season after a terrific 1928 campaign.
Holland has had an interesting career arc the past few seasons. He enjoyed a career year at age 29 in 1924, going 18-7 with a 3.65 era but followed that up with perhaps his worst season in 1925. He was only marginally better in 1926 and 1927 but caught fire a year ago with career bests in ERA and ERA+ and very close to the best WHIP of his career. At 35, you would expect a pitcher to be trending in the other direction but perhaps Holland is the exception rather than the rule.
BILL JENKINS
After missing a good chunk of last season with injuries someone must have convinced the 26 year old that he is the second coming of Johnny Davis. Two starts. Two complete game victories allowing just 1 run in each including a masterful 6-1 win over Philadelphia when he held Sandman, Endler, Kellogg, Ames and Castaneda - the heart of the Keystones order - to a combined 2-for-19 with 2 measly singles and a walk. Now Jenkins had enjoyed some success against Ames and Sandman in the past but Kellogg and Endler entered the game a combined 22-for-50 in previous seasons against Jenkins.
Jenkins was 8-8 with a 4.63 era last year for Boston but, as mentioned above was injured twice and missed over 2 months of the season. He did lead the Federal Association with a 3.35 era in 1927 - his rookie season, and is a former second round pick who topped out at #56 in the prospect rankings so it is possible he is just hitting his prime with this great start.
AL CARROLL
Another 26 year old, Carroll made just one start so far. It was his FABL debut after going 5-17, 3.87 for AAA Denver last year. Carroll went the distance, allowing 12 hits in a 5-4 victory over the Keystones. A fourth round pick in 1923 out of Georgia Baptist, the jury is still out on whether Carroll, who was ranked #80 on the prospect list in 1925, has what it takes to be a FABL regular.
DICK ALEXANDER
The 28 year old had a solid season for the Minutemen a year ago, going 14-7 with a 3.82 era in 22 starts plus 10 relief appearances. This season he is 2-1 with a 3.52 era and had 1 outstanding start to go along with a pair of mediocre ones. He got plenty of run support early in his first start of the season and went the distance despite allowing 6 runs in an 8-6 win over Philadelphia in the opening series. He followed that up with a strong 8 inning, 4 hit performance at Washington, getting a 5-1 win in a game the Minutemen broke open with 3 in the top of the ninth. However, in the rematch with the Eagles last week, he got knocked out after 6 innings, allowing 5 runs - but just 3 earned in a 6-2 loss.
SUMMARY
The Boston defense has been good and defense rarely goes into a slump. It is the offense and pitching that concerns me.
While the Boston offense is off to a decent start it really is not that strong to begin with with only star 3B Charlie Berry (.476,2,12) considered a top player, and to his credit Berry is playing like a top player right now. Highly touted rookie 2B Carl Carr (.357,1,5) is off to a good start and might have a big year but some of the other Minutemen that are off to strong starts do not seem as likely to maintain the pace. I am thinking specifically of 32 year old catcher Joe Richards (.333,1,10) and 29 year old centerfielder Jack Copeland (.326,2,13). Both are playing well above past seasons stats, so, barring a Joe Masters like breakout, it is likely both will drop back to their career norms as the year progresses. If, or perhaps it is better stated to say when that happens there will be even more pressure on the Boston rotation.
The pitching, judging from above, likely will come back down to earth as you have to think Burt is going to level out while Alexander and Carroll are bottom of the rotation options at best. I suppose Boston has a chance at having 2 very good starters this season in Jack Holland and Bill Jenkins, but it is a stretch to believe they both can fashion dominant seasons, which is what it will require for Boston to win with their offense in the Federal Association.
The opinion of this writer is, while it is a great story for Minutemen fans who have suffered through some lean years of late, they should enjoy it while they can, as while the Minutemen perhaps are better than the preseason predictions gave then credit for, Boston is simply still not good enough to win the Federal Association this season.