Over the next few months of the season I will provde a number of commentaries, mock drafts and player analysis of the upcoming draft class. Let's start with a look at pitcher performance this year and I would suggest perhaps Tom Barrell and Chick Stout have company when discussing the top pitcher.
A 1929 DRAFT PREVIEW ARTICLE
GM'S SHOULD LOOK BEYOND BARRELL AND STOUT
In an effort to help determine who the top pitchers are in this draft I took a look at the production so far this season from every draft eligible pitcher. I then highlighted guys who fit the following criteria:
Anyone with a WHIP below 1.0 had that category highlighted.
The same for an ERA+ over 200
Opponent's batting average below .200,
K/9 ratio above 9.0, a K/BB ration above 4.0
anyone in the top 15 in this draft class of pitchers WAR so far this season.
It is no surprise that both Tom Barrell and Chick Stout made the cut. They were two of 4 pitchers to make the grade in each of those categories with the other two being high school pitchers. One is Ben Bernard out of Mobile, who you might recall I placed second in my preseason mock draft. The other is Roy Byrd, who plays for Omaha High School and has had a drastic improvement this year over his two previous season totals.
One other pitcher just barely missed the mark. Chicago Poly ace Tom Blalock was right there on four of the five categories but fell just short in K/BB ratio due to his pedestrian strikeout totals.
Here is a look at the 5 along with the other pitchers to come close.
Interesting to note when I create the same chart but look at career stats instead of just this season neither Stout nor Barrell quality. Both come extremely close but just fall short.. For Stout his career K/BB ratio is just shy at 3.9 while Barrell's career ERA+ falls 16 points short of the 200 mark and his opposing batting average is .011 too high. Also worth noting is Tom Blalock comes incredibly close to qualifying (.003 off on BAvg) this time
The only player to make both this year's list and the career list is high school ace Ben Bernard.
The other player to qualify along with Bernard on the career list is Milwaukee High Schooler John Howard. However, Howard is a player trending the wrong way with a great first season of high school ball, an average second season and struggling this year.
Interesting also is a teammate of each Barrell and Stout make this list. Stan Merendino of Rainier College has struggled this season but made my first round mock draft list prior to the start of the year after two very good seasons with the Majestics. Georgia Baptist's Jackie Shaw has a larger sample for his career as he also played high school ball, where he was very good, prior to joining the Gators.
I tried to see what FABL pitchers (using last season's stats) would make the grade. None of them come close at all because of the nature of the game (much higher opponent's batting averages and strikeouts are much lower in FABL than the college and high school ranks.)
I tweaked my categories to highlight the top 15 pitchers (min 100 innings in 1928) in each of the 5 categories listed above instead of using the minimum thresholds. Johnny Davis comes close but low strikeout rates doom him as well as several other Sailor pitchers to falling just short. The Federal Association, aside from Pittsburgh, is not represented at all here because of the increased offensive production in the loop. So it is I guess a flawed comparison but interesting nonetheless to see who is included.
Rabbit Day of Baltimore and Jim Smith of Pittsburgh are the only pitchers to make the top 15 in each of those categories with some other players coming close as you can see below.
SUMAMRY
Now that last chart was really just there because I found it interesting and in no way does it suggest this draft class belongs with those FABL stars, at least not yet.
The big takeaway I get from here is perhaps we should not just be discussing if Barrell or Stout should be the first pitcher selected in the draft. It might be wise to widen your possibilities and consider that high schooler Ben Bernard should get some serious consideration, as possibly should Tom Blalock.
I would like to refer you back to a comment I made in my Way To Early Mock DRAFT about Bernard.
Quote:
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2-BEN BERNARD RHP - Mobile HS: If there is a pitcher that can replace Barrell at the top of the draft it is the 17 year old from Warren, Pennsylvania. In 132 college innings he is 11-3 with a 1.09 era and an almost unbelievable 480 ERA+. His career WHIP is 0.83. The upside appears limitless for Bernard. However, he is a high school arm and certainly much less refined then Barrell. Bernard is nicknamed the Warden because he always seems to be in control of the situation but if there is a knock on him it's that he knows how good is and sometimes becomes complacent. Mobile was a sub .500 team last season and will be starting 3 or 4 rookies on a team that already lacked offense. If Bernard can lift them into contention it will certainly help prove his dominance.
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If anything now that we are well into the high school season I am even more convinced that Bernard warrants serious discussion for the first overall pick. Would I take him first? I don't think so, at least not yet, but only because of the greater uncertainty high school arms have. But the more I see him pitch, the more Ben Bernard is making me rethink that decision. In a few game weeks I will have an updated mock draft and we will see exactly where Bernard places in my mid-season mock draft.
Until next time, happy scouting.