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rburgh · 03-14-2020, 07:48 PM

At the risk of boring most of you, I poked around the auction house. I sorted the cards by current bid or minimum price, and tagged the top, bottom, and each quartile prices. The results:

Perfect 1,250,000 170,000 66,000 26,000 24,000
Diamond 250,000 17,000 7,000 5000 4000
Gold 16,500 2,000 1,500 1200 1000
Silver 12,500 330 210 160 100
Bronze 1200 41 34 30 25
Iron 1000 10 8 6 5

I suspect, from this data, that a reasonable approximation for the values of a random card of a particular class is the average of the 3 middle numbers there. So my guess at the values of a card from a pack are:

Perfect 87,000
Diamond 9,700
Gold 1600
Silver 233
Bronze 35
Iron 8

Since the chances of a card in a pack being in one of these classes are uniform for the 5 "random" cards, the average value of those cards is:

Perfect 87,000/1000 = 87
Diamond 9700/150 = 65
Gold 1600/50 = 32
Silver 233/20 = 12
Bronze 35/5 = 7
Iron average of 3.6 cards per pack = 3.6*8 = 29

So the average value of the 5 random cards in any pack is 5* (87+65+32+12+7) = 1015 + 29 for the residual irons = 1044.

For a standard pack, then, the expected value on the auction house of the 6 cards you receive is 1079.

For a gold pack it's 2644. and for a diamond pack it's 10744.

Other people have tried this analysis with different results. But on the other hand, the truly special diamond cards and all perfect cards probably don't get put back on the AH nearly as often as the low-end golds and silvers. So my analysis may well be conservative.

One problem with the standard packs is that you might get multiples of the same guy. Also, as the level of your team increases you will reach a point where only a small percentage of diamonds are of any use for you.

Another problem with this analysis is that the golds and diamonds you get from packs may well be heavily weighted toward Live cards, which are well known to be less valuable than the average historical card. If that's the case then my analysis is off on the high side and even the standard packs are negative sum items.

03-14-2020, 07:48 PM	#12
rburgh All Star Starter Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: Pittsburgh Posts: 1,077	Some Math At the risk of boring most of you, I poked around the auction house. I sorted the cards by current bid or minimum price, and tagged the top, bottom, and each quartile prices. The results: Perfect 1,250,000 170,000 66,000 26,000 24,000 Diamond 250,000 17,000 7,000 5000 4000 Gold 16,500 2,000 1,500 1200 1000 Silver 12,500 330 210 160 100 Bronze 1200 41 34 30 25 Iron 1000 10 8 6 5 I suspect, from this data, that a reasonable approximation for the values of a random card of a particular class is the average of the 3 middle numbers there. So my guess at the values of a card from a pack are: Perfect 87,000 Diamond 9,700 Gold 1600 Silver 233 Bronze 35 Iron 8 Since the chances of a card in a pack being in one of these classes are uniform for the 5 "random" cards, the average value of those cards is: Perfect 87,000/1000 = 87 Diamond 9700/150 = 65 Gold 1600/50 = 32 Silver 233/20 = 12 Bronze 35/5 = 7 Iron average of 3.6 cards per pack = 3.68 = 29 So the average value of the 5 random cards in any pack is 5 (87+65+32+12+7) = 1015 + 29 for the residual irons = 1044. For a standard pack, then, the expected value on the auction house of the 6 cards you receive is 1079. For a gold pack it's 2644. and for a diamond pack it's 10744. Other people have tried this analysis with different results. But on the other hand, the truly special diamond cards and all perfect cards probably don't get put back on the AH nearly as often as the low-end golds and silvers. So my analysis may well be conservative. One problem with the standard packs is that you might get multiples of the same guy. Also, as the level of your team increases you will reach a point where only a small percentage of diamonds are of any use for you. Another problem with this analysis is that the golds and diamonds you get from packs may well be heavily weighted toward Live cards, which are well known to be less valuable than the average historical card. If that's the case then my analysis is off on the high side and even the standard packs are negative sum items.