Quote:
Originally Posted by chazzycat
I generally agree with your premise, but OPS doesn't seem like the right stat for this kind of analysis. Keep in mind that OPS is a pretty basic stat...it's just OBP plus SLG. OBP includes AVG, and walks. But SLG also includes AVG, and power. So if you think about it, AVG is doubly-represented in OPS compared to the power component or the eye component. So yeah...that's why you're seeing such disparities in the correlations. Because contact is being double counted. I'd suggest wRC+ as a more robust offensive stat.
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I took your suggestion and reran my correlations, this time using wRC+, and the result was essentially the same. You are correct that using wRC+ weakened the correlation with CON by itself (from .39 using OPS to .26 using RC+), but CON still represented a 3x relationship in performance over EYE, GAP, or POW, which all came in at .07 or below.
When trying to combine the factors into one predictive measure, I once again could not get higher than around .50, and that was only after weighting CON at 4.5x, EYE at 1.75x, and leaving GAP and POW at 1x.
Not saying this is the ultimate in statistical analysis- as I indicated in my OP, I did not take the entire OT universe, just my 1.5 million at bats of it. I do think directionally though, this indicates that the CON rating for hitters is far and away the most significant rating for forecasting offensive performance in the current PT environment.
Billy Beane would be proud that getting on base (CON + EYE) seem to be the most critical hitting ratings, but it reinforces my original point that the PT universe is unlikely to be favorable to many of the current hitting trends in Live cards.