[pgjocki]

There is a theory that each team should win a bit more than 50% of their home games and a little less than their away games and the mean is very close to finishing the year at around 80-84 wins. Obviously some teams will win 90 and others 70 as that's to be expected in a normal distribution.

At 60 games you have 100 left and could expect to win between 45-55 of those games. You might go on a hot streak and win 60-65 or you might just peter out and win 35-40 which is demoralizing.

The question is "why am I losing" and not "why am I 10 games back". You can't control the other team and they may be due to come back to the mean.

I would look at record in 1 run games, number of blown saves, number of quality starts, team ranking for defense efficiency and OPS. For SS, CF, and C I'm willing to except less offense for gold glove defense but I have to get production from the corners (1B, 3B, LF, RF). If my bullpen guys have a WHIP over 1.5 to 1.75 I'm looking to improve immediately.

I don't make big moves with Front Office before running through those questions.

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