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Taking this concept further, here is a series win probability graph for 2057 World Series between the Dallas Sharks and Chicago Aviators.
The World Series is a best of 9 contest in the ABL. You can see that at the very start both teams have odds of about 50 percent.
Dallas won Game 1 5-3 thanks to a 2 run 12th inning home run from Ian Shrader. Dallas odds of winning the World Series jumped to about 65 percent.
Game 2 reached the 12th inning as well. This time, it was Chicago's Forest Dial who was the hero, scoring a walk-off rbi double. This evened the series at one.
Game 3 was a back and forth affair, but Chicago prevailed 9-7, taking a 2-1 series lead.
Games 4 and 5 had much less doubt than the first three. Chicago knocked Dallas around, and took a commanding 4-1 series lead. Dallas's series win chance was down to about 10%. Needing 4 straight wins, they would need to dig deep.
Games 6 and 7 Dallas got the wins they needed. These games were uneventful out of context, but let me assure you they were excruciating for fans of the club.
Game 8 saw the series head back to Chicago. A pitchers duel saw the game at 2-1 Chicago heading into the ninth inning. Dallas would need to pull off a miracle within a miracle. Down to their final pitch, Dallas second baseman Kinya Igawa hit a grand slam to put his team up 5-2.
If I were a fan at this point in time, I would probably consider Chicago dead men walking. Game 9 would prove me correct. Dallas trounced Chicago, and concluded one of the most tremendous comebacks in league history.
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