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Old 05-06-2020, 04:16 PM   #5
BirdWatcher
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Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Denver, Colorado
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CBeisbol View Post
Plus, there's no real way to know how likely you are to make it

A competing game I used to play would tell you the probability of success. That could probably be improved on, but it was something
My gaming background is largely with tabletop sports simulations like Strat-O-Matic, Replay, etc. And I have played the computer versions of these games. With games like these, which are basically translations of dice and cards games where the game engine is transparent, you will often know something like, if you send this runner you have a 1-17 chance of being safe out of 1-20. Fine. That's how those games work and so it makes sense to have that information.

Does that mirror real-life very well? Not in my opinion. In OOTP I am told how deep the ball was hit, how good of an arm the fielder has, and how good a runner my guy is. That seems about right. If I am a real-life base coach do I know that the play has a 45% chance of success, or a 60% chance, or 80%? Nope. But I do know those three things above, and I'm going to factor them all into a decision (as well as, likely, what I know about the catchers defense if the play will be at the plate).

For my money, this is another way that OOTP gets it right!
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