Thread: Fun with OOTP
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Old 05-20-2020, 09:57 AM   #44
BradG223
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 173
Perhaps the tensest moment in ABA history came in the 2089 World Series between the Brooklyn Seals and the Las Vegas Goats. I cooked up the champion leverage for each play in each playoff game, and the play with the greatest expected change in championship win probability was found in the 8th inning of game 9.

The blue line shows Las Vegas's win probability as the series progresses, the green bars show the championship leverage. That peak is when Cody Benfield stepped to the plate with the bases loaded, down a run with 1 out in the bottom of the 8th.

Benfield had a pretty boring career. He was a good last resort batter, but a poor fielder. With around 223 GS and a WAR around 8, he didn't leave too much for fans to remember him by. That is until this at-bat came around. He etched himself into ABL lore when he hit a liner off Sergio Porchas little ways over second base, giving his team the lead.

Leverage is a cool stat, and it definitely helps to find some great moments. However, there are plenty of limitations to it. It ignores the context that can enhance the excitement of particular moments.
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