Quote:
Originally Posted by HRBaker
I just looked at the results from last season and the numbers are basically the same. The top 3 teams in Rookie, for example, won 147-149 games. In Stone, 145-150 games, and in Iron, 138-146 games... all well above an .800 winning percentage.
All I'm trying to say is when you have Whales in the lower levels, which represents well over 50% of OOTP's PT players, most of these teams are going to be abandoned well before the next version comes out.
That said, maybe the money they make from the top 10% is enough to make it a successful venture, but over time the number of people playing PT (in my opinion) will ultimately go down. It becomes like playing Chess when you only get to play the World Champions
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I'm not claiming there are zero whales in the entirety of Rookie, Stone, Iron. I'm claiming that the typical league has virtually no whale presence because of the sheer number of leagues, the relatively low rate at which whales create new teams at low levels, and the virtually guaranteed promotion rate for all these strong teams. You'd need a truly massive amount of PP being injected into the economy for even an average of one whale per league at those low levels. Citing the top win totals of a given level doesn't really say anything about the typical quality of competition or even the typical best team that someone would face in a given league.
Here's a concrete example: Come up with a 'whale' team. Something you think is going to exist typically at these levels. Think of some characteristic players this team would have. Now think of how many whale teams there would need to be in order to really make it so whales at a low level are a problem.
Okay, so with that in mind, think about the promotion rates. Under that assumption, how many whales are at higher levels? Remember, the worst diamond team is probably at minimum composed of the SE squad, so there are many teams in diamond to add to your total # of whales number on top of what you think exists in all other levels.
Okay, so now we have a number of whales we think exists in the universe. How many cards does that number of whale teams need to support every whale having a card of that quality? If this number is too high, your estimate of the number of whales is off, since the economy can't support it (not enough supply). Another way you could gauge that is by predicting how many new whales enter the league each week at a low level. For a whale to be born, they need to buy cards on the AH for their team, and they need to be strong cards; stronger than the SEs. So, figure out how many copies of these elite cards need to be bought by these whales during a given week. Then, check the AH. Is that number realistic? How many cards of that type get sold in a given day? How many are available at a given time? If you don't want to follow the AH all day, you can check how long a typical whale card, posted at L7, stays up on the AH before being bought. Keep in mind higher tier whales are participating too, so you'll need more cards than you initially guessed would have to be sold to account for that.
This is what I mean by doing something quantitative. If you looked at these things and found that whale staples have massive volume that's constantly getting turned over on the AH, and that the amount was enough to support both the whales at the higher levels and all these new whales being created each week such that it's a problem in a typical lower level league, then I'd be more inclined to agree with you. As it stands, checking the top 3 wins records of a league doesn't really tell you anything about a typical week for a player at a given level. For all we know there are just 3 good teams in that level with a massive dropoff after it; there is not really usable information there.
I do, at least, respect the attempt to come up with something quantitative even if it doesn't really prove much. That's a conversation I can engage with in a meaningful way.