The Pandas were down 3-1 to the Yokohama Lynx in their first-round series and then pulled out three straight one-run wins to stun the division winners and reach the AL championship. Two weeks ago it was anything but assured they'd even make the playoffs, but now they have a real chance to take home some hardware. They're the weakest of the eight teams remaining, but the beauty of baseball is that anything can happen. Their start is SP Kunyang Zhang, who finished 4th in the AL in WAR with 6.1. He struck out nearly four batters for every walk he issued this season. He got roughed up by the Lynx in one outing last round, but rebounded for a win his next time out.
Mumbai dropped their first game to Melbourne and then apparently decided that the Mudfish were simply done scoring. Taki Arakawa threw the near-no-hitter in Game 2, and then they won 8-0, 9-2, and 4-0 to easily close out the series. The four members of their playoff rotation (Taki Arakawa, Hidenosuke Katsuoka, Song-Hyeon Kwan, and Juichi Matsumura) combined for 22.1 WAR this season, and the Vipers unsurprisingly led the AL in ERA. Their bullpen is exceptional, too. The offense is prone to slumps, and they finished 7th of 8 in their division in runs scored. If the bats fall asleep, even the expected terrific pitching might not be enough to advance.
It didn't seem like there would be much drama in the Caribbean League first round... until the Rangers nearly blew a 3-0 series lead to Panama City. But Oscar Fabregas came through with a strong start in Game 7 and disaster was averted as the won 6-1. The Rangers are led by an offense built on the long ball: Every regular starter except for one hit at least 13 home runs. The one who didn't, catcher Nicholas Pascal, led the team in batting average at .368. So you could say it's a strong offense. Santiago Vecchio taking the mound for a couple starts doesn't hurt, either. He won 20 games and finished second in the CL in WAR amongst pitchers at 5.9.
Kingston is, simply put, a ballclub full of solid players. Only one, Maximo Loaiza, put up more than 3.7 WAR, but there are very few weak points down the roster. Seriously, I'm looking over their roster and right now and there's just not that much exciting going on, but everyone is good. These teams were separated by run differential by only 9 runs over the season, so it figures to be an evenly-matched affair.
When Kiev escaped with a 2-0 walkoff win in Game 1 against the Warsaw Trappers, it felt like a big missed opportunity and wow did that prove to be true. The Trappers hung tough with the Comets all series, finally faltering in a 6-5 loss in Game 7. The Comets, who had seemed invincible all season, finally looked human. But they survived and advanced to take on the Paris Pride, who dispatched Amsterdam in a rather ho-hum six game series. Kiev stole all the headlines this season but Paris was an extremely strong crew and should not be taken lightly.
They're led, of course, by their ace Lenny Sloan. While he isn't scheduled to match up directly with Henry Jones of Kiev, the series could come down to who gets more out of their big weapon in the rotation. Of course, fellow starters Michael Reid (of Kiev) and Michaël van Lancker (of Paris) were both All Stars as well and both can change the series with a dominant start or two. van Lancker was named MVP of Paris' series with Amsterdam.
Offensively, you know all the names for Kiev: Cochetti, Thierry, Martin, Hellmann, Paris, Galatti. They hit well all season, tallying 753 runs (Paris scored 700). The Pride are led by Martin Nyland who hit .321/.398/.527 for the season along with Lucas Dawson, the 22 year-old center fielder. He put together a .287/.350/.497 season, tallying 4.6 WAR with his terrific defense. Kiev will, of course, be favored, but the Pride are sure to provide some very stiff competition.
Both of these teams were the best all season long in the NAL, but they each pushed to the brink in the previous round. In fact, each had fallen behind 3-2 and needed to win two straight to get here. This is a match-up of the two best position players in the NAL: Toronto's Jacob Yoachum and Kansas City's Josh Dillow. Yoachum led the league in WAR at 7.6, Dillow was second at 6.2. Yoachum's 176 OPS+ edged out Dillow's 165+, but you really can't go wrong with either one on your side. In the first round, Yoachum hit .435/.517/.913 while Dillow batted .433/.500/.767.
Yoachum vs. Dillow - click to enlarge
Neither offense is a one-trick pony, though. For Kansas City, Rick Tapia hit .335 and stole 29 bases while Linus Lee smacked 35 home runs and Isaac Mohammed added 27 more. For the Giants, Upton Abdul hit .320 with 25 steals, Landon Burnwood hit .297 with 19 homers, and 19 year-old top prospect Raj Brown had a 121 OPS+ after being called up in August. Mohammed and Abdul are also both wizards with the glove at shortstop.
On the pitching side, Toronto would seemingly have an advantage with the 1-2 combo of C.J. Gorski and Bryant Achilles. The duo ranked 1-2 in wins in the NAL, each topping 6 WAR. But Boston roughed them both up a bit last round and they combined to allow an uncharacteristic 13 runs in 22 innings, an ERA over 5.00. They'll need to be better in this series. For Kansas City, the pitching begins and ends with Josh Sarre, who just started a one-hitter in Game 7. He went 19-3 on the season with 5.3 WAR. But while Toronto has two potentially dominant pitchers, the next-best starter for the Wheat Kings carried a 4.40 ERA this year.
Kansas City has the better overall offense, in fact they probably have the best offense in the world. They scored more runs than anybody, including the juggernaut Kiev Comets. But with Sarre limited to making only two starts, their pitching would seem to be in trouble. Toronto has the better pitching on paper, but Gorski and Achilles need to rebound from their struggles last round to validate that. Either way, we're going to see Josh Dillow or Jacob Yoachum move forward, and that's a win for baseball fans.