We've reach the halfway mark of the season. Before getting into a look at the Rays, here's how the MLB standings and leaderboards shake out:
The Rays of course are in great shape as the AL East is not a great division these days. Remember when the Rays went into Minnesota and the Twins had the best record in the league and beat them in the first game to go to 32-15? They've gone 8-24 since and once again the AL Central has a bunch of teams bunched together around .500. The West, meanwhile, has 4 good teams and 3 of them at most can make the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are the big surprise in the NL, a few days ago they were ahead of the injury-decimated Dodgers, who are without Josh Bell and Cody Bellinger for either all or most of the rest of the season, without Clayton Kershaw and just got Corey Seager back after a long absence.
I "deadened" the ball this year even further from last year using the 2014 offensive environment and scoring and HRs are down as you can tell from these leaderboards. I probably pushed the pendulum too far and will go back to what I used for 2023.
State of the Rays: They're on pace for 104 wins and should win the division comfortably. While at first blush the team would appear to be down from last year's 115-win crew, they're pretty similarly situated in that last year's team overperformed their Pythagorean record while this year's team is underperforming it, and both of them are/were true 110-win teams. Obviously the problem this year has been the bullpen being much shakier than last year, as evidenced by the mediocre record in 1-run games. Also the team defense has reverted to its 2022 level after being above-average last year. I'm not sure why given we pretty much have the same personnel. With the multiple Brandon Marsh injuries, CF has been a bit of a revolving door so I know we've sacrificed some D there, and Meadows in RF to accommodate Schnell is a bit of a downgrade. And of course we continue to have our issues with lefty pitching; fortunately, there isn't a whole lot of it we have to face.
Midseason grades:
C: This position has had our biggest drop-off. Keibert Ruiz (B-) is still hitting for average but I suppose he's one of the victims of the deader ball as he's only managed 3 HR to date when he was well into the 20s the past two seasons. And after putting up incredible numbers in his limited appearances, Ronaldo Hernandez (D) has been ghastly this year at the plate with -0.4 WAR and a .175 batting average with 1 HR, and he's had some bad defensive games as well. His morale is "angry" so this is a combination of regression of his 2022-23 performances combined with being stuck as a backup. I may explore trading him while his value is still high as barring a Keibert injury he's not going to play much.
1B: Alec Bohm (B-) is still hitting for power and playing good D but his OBP is still in the low .300s. Ultimately I can see Torkelson playing 1B, or Triston Casas if Devers exercises his player option at the end of the season.
2B: Vidal Brujan (A). He's having a monster season and that's despite a 3-week or so terrible slump he was in. He's an OBP machine, now over .400 and is among the AL WAR leaders. His late-season and playoff power surge of last year seems to be a victim of the ball this season, though.
SS: Wander Franco (A-). Wander's had his usual deep slump followed by his usual red-hot surge, and his numbers are about where we expect them.
3B: Rafael Devers (B+): He's getting it done, and with Abraham Toro reverting to his 2022 numbers with Boston, the deal looks better now.
IF: Triston Casas (B+). Along with Ronaldo, he's gotten the least playing time but has been somewhat productive. He'll have a bigger role next year, either at 3B replacing Devers or at 1B replacing Bohm. Keston Hiura (B-). He's hit decently, but his K/BB ratio is 43/8 which is disappointing. With the Torkelson injury, he'll get more run at DH once we stop visiting NL parks.
OF: Austin Meadows (A). He was good last year, of course, but he was kind of lost in the shuffle with some of the other breakout performances. Not this year, though - he's playing at an MVP level and doesn't seem to be affected by the ball. Brandon Marsh (INC): He's been limited to 27 games this year with multiple multi-week injuries. He's put up 1.7 WAR when he has played so he's an A+ on performance but can't stay on the field. Nick Schnell (A-): Nick can just rake, and rake he has. Spencer Torkelson (A-): His power is real, and he was hitting for average despite his propensity for whiffing, it's a shame he got the injury once he was taking over as full-time DH. Hunter Bishop (B+): filled in admirably for Marsh, especially with his ridiculous hot streak to start his MLB career.
DH: Seth Beer (D). Oof. Hitting .214 with 4 HR as the primary DH is not getting it done. Yeah, yeah, the ball, but that doesn't explain the lack of hitting overall from him. Another guy who probably gets traded while he still has some value, although with all the injuries it's probably in the offseason.
SP: Tyler Glasnow (A-). Leading the league again in Ks and among the leaders in WAR, although has struggled with his control recently. Walker Buehler (B): A bit more hittable and homer-prone that I hoped, but still getting it done and hopefully the masterpiece in his last outing bodes well going forward. Matt Manning (B+): He's been pretty good after missing the first 4-5 weeks with injury, looking for a big 2nd half from him. Dustin May (A-). Leading the league in ERA, so I can't complain. I wondered about him a bit going in but he's really gotten it done. Daniel Lynch (A-). A guy who was out of the rotation stepped in with the Paddack injury and has exceeded expectations after his rough 2nd half last year. Overall, the rotation has been excellent.
RP: Collectively this has been a B-/C+ pen. Alvarado has had his worst year so far for me, although he's looked good his past few outings and should be OK. Nick Anderson has been up and down as well. Will Smith of course started losing his stuff and hence lost his closer gig but thankfully Jasseel De La Cruz has been excellent and really has been the MVP of the pen. Mitch Keller started strong but has been shaky lately so I'm not sure what I have there, while in long relief Asa Lacy has been OK to decent. Sandy Gaston has pitched in low-leverage situations but poorly in the few high-leverage shots he's gotten. He'll go back to Durham when Ian Hamilton comes off the IL soon. I'm hoping Hamilton and newly-acquired Mitchell Verburg will stabilize things.