[StLee]

Analysis

We now have some better ideas of teams eliminated and who is still standing in the playoff races.

Playoff breakdowns:

BL
Champions: The Slog
Wildcard Race: Nordhagen Beach +1 over Easy Town
Eliminated: County Crossing, Finch, Farm, Salem

IL
Champions: Lexington
Wildcard Race: Sunshine Tidings + 1 over Fort Hagen + 1 over Concord and Starlight + 1 over Abernathy
Eliminated: none

ML
Champions: Goodneighbor
Wildcard Race: Warwick and Quincy even
Eliminated: University Point, Atom, Jamaica Plain

RL
Champions: Oberland
Wildcard Race: Fairline Hill Estates +3 over Shaw and Vault 81
Eliminated: Egret, Diamond City

A breakdown of Week 20's biggest matchups:

Brotherhood League: Easy Town and Nordhagen Beach
The scheduling gods got this one right. The Assaultrons need to win two of three to force a play-in game and a sweep puts them in. The Party Boys need two of three or a sweep to be the wildcard representative.

Easy Town holds a 7-2 advantage on the season over the Boys, the largest win margin of any team vs team matchup in the Brotherhood League.

April 22-23 @ Easy Town: NB 8, ET 7; ET 7, NB 6, 10 inn.; ET 10, NB 5
May 6-8 @ Easy Town: ET 6, NB 4, 12 inn.; ET 12, NB 5; ET 3, NB 1
June 2-5 @ Nordhagen Beach: NB 5, ET 4; ET 11, NB 1; ET 6, NB 2

Things have changed a lot for Nordhagen Beach since the midway point of the season as they have now won five straight series. Still, the psychologic advantage is in the Assaultrons' favor coming into this matchup. The Party Boys have to find a way to stay hot to put themselves in the playoffs, winning at least two out of three or four games.

Prediction: Easy Town wins 2 of 3, wins play-in game.

Minutemen League: Quincy at Warwick
Also a scheduling gods' favor, this matchup is simple: win two and you're in. It cannot get easier than that. Warwick has the experience of winning the Minutemen League in 2296, which seems to give them the clutch advantage, but the Mirelurks also could not afford to be swept last week at Goodneighbor when the league title was on the line.

The Mirelurks hold a 5-4 advantage on the season against the Gunners, and being at home will definitely give them the advantage since they are 3-0 there.

April 8-10 @ Quincy: Qui 2, War 1; Qui 14, War 7; Qui 9, War 7
May 6-8 @ Quincy: War 3, Qui 1; War 5; Qui 3; Qui 5, War 3
June 3-5 @ Warwick: War 4, Qui 2; War 6, Qui 3; War 4, Qui 1

The Gunners got a boost last week to close the three-game gap, but they have a tough time scoring against the Mirelurks' pitching, especially at the pitcher-friendly confines of the Homestead. Still Quincy's offense is much better than Warwick's and their pitching combination of Matt Ranger (8-7, 4.97), Manny McDuff (7-8, 4.92), and Ray Human (9-4, 4.96) can matchup well to the Warwick starters of John Diner (10-7, 4.39), Justin Sphinx (8-7, 6.02), and Dave Kovalenko (6-6, 5.99).

Prediction: Quincy knocks off the Mirelurks on the last day of the regular season to earn the wildcard slot in the ML.

Railroad League: Fairline Hill Estates at Vault 81
This is a potential playoff matchup that could make things quite interesting should the Dwellers find a way to sweep the Yao Guai and Shaw sweeps the Egret Scrappers. That scenario is not likely, and we will tell you why below, but a three-way tie for second place in the RL (which is also a chance in the Institute League) would be an exciting addition to the playoffs. We're not sure how that would be handled by the automated playoff system.

The Yao Guai hold a 5-4 edge over Vault 81 in the head-to-head matchups, which seems to show that the teams are about even when they play. That also means the likelihood of a sweep is not very good a chance for the Dwellers. There is no doubt, though, that they will be trying.

April 22-24 @ FHE: V81 10, FHE 5; FHE 5, V81 4, 12 inn.; FHE 8, V81 3
May 6-8 @ FHE: V81 8, FHE 2; FHE 9, V81 4; V81 6, FHE 2
June 3-5 @ Vault 81: V81 6, FHE 2; FHE 8, V81 5; FHE 10, V81 7

Fairline Hill Estates currently holds a 2-1 advantage at Vault 81, and the Yao Guai are just better as a team than the Dwellers. In fact, had it not been for their 1-11 season record against Oberland, the Yao Guai would already have the wildcard slot wrapped up.

Prediction: Fairline wins Game 1 and clinches the wildcard spot.

Institute League: Sunshine Tidings at Lexington
Other than the Synths clinching the IL thanks to Starlight's massive implosion, the rest of the league is a jumbled mess. Lexington could play spoiler for the Chemists should they win 2 of 3 or sweep in what is a meaningless series for the league title race. What can motivate Lexington is that they are currently tied for the #3 seed with The Slog in the CBO playoff race, so Lexington does have motivation to win. Of course, Sunshine Tidings will wrap up the wildcard spot with a road sweep and can clinch at least a tie for second place by winning two of three. A loss in the series, and one of the other teams in the division could be looking down at the Chemists for that final wildcard spot.

What gives Sunshine Tidings an advantage is that Lexington has been their favorite team to play so far this season. The Chemists hold a 6-3 advantage, and at least one win would put them even or ahead with every other team on their schedule for success.

April 22-24 @ ST: ST 2, Lex 0; ST 5, Lex 2; ST 2, Lex 1
May 6-8 @ ST: ST 3, Lex 0; Lex 4, ST 3; St 3, Lex 0
June 3-5 @ Lexington: ST 4, Lex 0; Lex 9, ST 4; Lex 6. ST 5

The Synths are 2-1 at home despite only winning three of five. Sunshine Tidings also shut out the Synths four times in their matchups, including all three times Tony Bertha faced off against them. Bertha has not been dominant this season (8-10, 3.54), but he is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 27 innings against the Synths in 2297!!!

Prediction: Chemists take 2 of 3 to boost themselves into the wildcard spot and Lexington enters the CBO playoffs as the 4th seed.