[ayaghmour2]

3rd Round, 46th Overall: LF Rich Langton (Detroit City College Knights): His junior year was the worst of his three seasons, but the 21-year-old Rich Langton still hit .340/.376/.547 (127 OPS+) with 8 homers, 7 steals, and 48 RBI's. He finished his college career with a very impressive .348/.396/.585 (151 OPS+) batting line with 27 homers, 18 steals, and 135 RBI's in what translates to roughly a full FABL season. His 20/20 potential and positive ratings out in left are almost like an improved version of Vince York. Unlike York, Langton just hits from the right side, but my scout is a big fan of his. He projects him to be a .360 hitter with a ton of upside at the plate, in the field, and on the base path. I like Langton even more then Ed Reyes, who was our first rounder last year and ranks 75th in the FABL. Langton has all the talent needed to be a longtime major league starter.

4th Round, 59th Overall: C Harry Mead (Memphis HS Pharaohs): We had three fourth round picks which mirrored the Giants recent dynasty (10, 12, 14). This pick came from Brooklyn, and I used it on catcher Harry Mead. Technically, our top prospect Joe Rainbow is a catcher, but I'm not too keen on his big league potential and I think the Harvey, Illinois native Harry Mead is better. He had a rough senior year, hitting just .283/.335/.447 (95 OPS+) with 5 homers and 35 RBI's. It couldn't be further form his successful sophomore season where he hit .443/.511/.741 (248 OPS+) with 7 homers and 48 RBI's. While these seasons are completely different, his career .339/.397/.550 (161 OPS+) line is extremely impressive for a prep catcher. He's also an absolute freak of nature, a lefty catcher, which will be really interesting to see how that develops. He's played a little in first and left as well, but as so far held his own behind the plate. My scout thinks he's got good catching ability and an average arm and we're going to give him every opportunity to stay behind the plate. He's a solid hitter with a great eye, and even though we have one of the best catchers in Mike Taylor, Mead is just 18 and could eventually form a platoon with Taylor against lefties as he's not nearly as strong against same-side pitchers. Mead has tremendous upside, but he's likely a long way away from the majors.

4th Round, 60th Overall: SP Cy Sullivan (Austin HS Senators): We had a big discussion in our slack group (not because of this pick) on players getting selected early even with limited/bad high school and college stats. It's interesting because in stats only, it's hard to trust a scout when you can't see the "ratings" they give players and sometimes the reports don't match with the numbers.

The only problem is, sometimes just like with ratings, the statistics in the prep leagues don't always tell the full story.

Take Sullivan for example; as a sophomore he was 7-1 with a 3.00 ERA (131 ERA+), 1.13 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts in 72 innings pitched. As a junior, he was 8-3 with a 2.95 ERA (122 ERA+), 1.11 WHIP, and 67 strikeouts in 88.1 innings. These numbers don't entirely jump out at you, but they look like a future draftee. My scout sees a nice four pitch arsenal and while he throws just 84-86, the 18-year-old is 6'6'' and destined for a velocity bump.

Then his senior year happened: 0-6, 6.62 ERA (72 ERA+), 1.84 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts in 51.2 innings.

Yikes...

So while his K/9 did jump (5.5, 6.8, 7.3), everything else got worse. Much worse. Sometimes top prospects (#34 in HS) struggle and put up just average or slightly below average numbers instead of the general high level performance, but this is much different. Everything here points to Sullivan really not being that good until you look at their roster:

C Jack Beard
C John J Brooks
1B Sam Harris
2B Joe Cranford
2B Ray Fulcher
3B Pat Clark
LF Jimmy Moore
LF George Seeman
CF Cy Irish
RF Bill Ashworth

*Looks away for a second*

*Glances back*

No, there is no typo. The Senators did not have a single shortstop (or even someone with a rating at shortstop) on their active roster.

You know who started a majority of the teams games at short?

Cy Sullivan

And let me tell you, it wasn't pretty...

Obviously, he didn't plat short when he was on the mound, but considering he was the best option at short on the team, it really says something. He had a -6.9 ZR in just 159.1 innings. For comparison, this year Russ Combs (who really struggled at short this year) had a -5.6 ZR in 337.2 innings.

So when Sullivan was on the mound, you know who he had at shortstop? Fellow pitchers Luke White and Polly Shelton. They combined for a -8.0 ZR in about 200 innings. Sullivan had an impressive 58% groundball percentage (the FABL leader this season Lou Martino's was 55%) which generally is a recipe for success. But, with a fellow pitcher at the most important infield position, these groundballs actually hurt Sullivan. His BABIP jumped over 100 points and his H/9 skyrocketed from 8.8 to 13.8 while his FIP and FIP- (4.07, 85) were both well above average.

So what does this mean? Well, other then the fact that I spend way too much time looking at HS/College teams and that I actually knew this SS debacle before the draft, Cy Sullivan may just be the unluckiest HS pitcher I've ever seen. He's by no means a future superstar like Tommy Wilcox should be, but he's most definitely light years better then his 1932 numbers shown. I think Sullivan is going to be a steal for us and I'm excited to see what he can do with an excellent defender like Billy Hunter at short in La Crosse next season.

4th Round, 62nd Overall: CF Lou Roach (Mississippi A&M Generals): This pick was actually ours, and I grabbed another outfielder in Park Ridge, Illinois native Lou Roach. Unlike a few of the guys I've taken this draft, Roach's best season was this year. As a junior, he slugged an astronomical .415/.473/.680 (188 OPS+) with 11 homers and 41 RBI's to finish off a stellar college career with the Generals. In 699 trips to the plate, Roach hit .359/.421/.593 (164 OPS+) with 32 homers and 124 RBI's. He never had an OPS+ below 150, never hit below .329/.388/.531 (sophomore year), never hit less then 10 homers, and never drove in less then 35 runs. He was the model for consistency and the only reason he was a 4th Rounder selection was because this draft was so deep with talent. He's passable out in center, probably best suited for a corner, but there is no doubting his offensive ability. He's got elite contact ability with well above average power and he almost never strikes out. He struck out 11 times as a junior, but just 3 times as a freshman and sophomore. Roach looks to be very far along in terms of development, and even with our excellent outfield, he could see himself playing for his hometown team in just a few seasons.

5th Round, 74th Overall: CF Ernie Carson (New York HS Eagles): I probably didn't need another outfielder, but it was just too hard to pass up the 18-year-old Ernie Carson. He didn't stand out as a senior, hitting .352/.426/.519 (135 OPS+) with 2 homers, 6 steals, and 16 RBI's, but he missed 15 games with a hamstring strain that definitely slowed him down. In just 500 career college plate appearances, he hit .348/.419/.540 (161 OPS+) with 11 homers, 68 RBI's, and 22 steals. He's a lefty hitter and righty thrower with excellent contact and speed. He's also a capable defender who can stick in center. Carson is a very raw prospect, but there's a lot of upside.

5th Round, 78th Overall: 3B Hank Stratton (Chicago HS Wildcats): Another player close to home, Hank Stratton spent his high school years right here in Chicago. He had a rough senior year, hitting .323/.362/.445 (110 OPS+) with 2 homers and 20 RBI's, but that's more because he regressed back to the mean. As a junior, he slashed .362/.395/.544 (185 OPS+) with 2 homers and 21 RBI's, with the high slugging fueled by 21 doubles. His career .345/.378/.495 (149 OPS+) is much closer to his actual ability, but the lefty swinging Stratton is an extremely talented youngster. He's an excellent defender with great gap power and if he had any ounce of speed, he'd profile as a very similar player to John Kincaid. He won't hit many homers, but he's got a really nice "pure swing" and Cougar fans can look forward to seeing "Jitters" at the North Side Grounds for years to come.

Overall, I like to think I draft well, but I am really liking how this class is shaping out. I couldn't get enough picks in this draft if I and there are still a bunch of guys that I want to take and we're already through five rounds. Last year's draft, I found maybe one guys (Ed Reyes) that I liked and it was hard to find guys to follow him up with. I think Reyes would be an after thought in my draft strategy had he been in this pool and I'm not sure I'd take him over any one I've grabbed so far. I'm thinking this class may be like the 1925 one, where six of my first seven picks and nine of the fifteen in the class have debuted. Not all of the guys have made huge impacts, but this includes starting first basemen Bill Ashbaugh, 1932 World Champion stopper Phil English, and Toronto's young star short stop Clyde Hinzman.

I actually took a look at the classes, and here's how I'm doing on debuts:
1925: 9 of 15 (60%)
1926: 5 of 23 (22%)
1927: 0 of 25 (0%) *4 on 40 man rosters and 2 top 50 prospects
1928: 1 of 25 (4%)
1929: 2 of 23 (9%)

It's probably too early to judge 1928 and 1929 (maybe even 1927), but 1925 and 1926 were really good. '26 includes Fred Barrell (1st), young Forester starters Ben Turner (9th) and Heinie Bretz (4th) (debuted in Brooklyn) and their outfielder Bobby Allen (10th) who's been an above average FABL hitter for five consecutive seasons. There's no big prospect there, but 2nd Rounder Bill Kline has been an effective lefty arm for us and 5th Rounder Mickey Williams is on the 40.

1927 looks awful at least from a Cougar perspective. 1st Rounder Harry Humphrey was a mega bust that I knew about a round or two after taking him that I made a huge mistake, 2nd Rounder Bobby Love fractured his elbow this year, and 3rd Rounder Ed Stevens, while on the 40, isn't all that inspiring. The picks I hit on, George DeForest (6th), Dean Astle (9th), and Ben Richardson (15th) are all in different organizations, but were used to acquire legit talent (Wilcox, Taylor, Kincaid, Combs, Wilder).

1928 and 1929 actually have more big leaguers, with Mike Murphy, Tom Barrell, and Joe Johnson all debuting in Chicago before being traded. For 1928, Johnny Walker (3rd) looks like a future big leaguer, Buck Waldrop (4th) was just moved for a trio of picks and ranks right outside the top 100 prospect list, but the class as a whole was very weak. 1929 has a few guys who have appeared in our top prospects including Ken Allen (4th), Gordie Thompson (5th), Jim Hatfield (6th), Tom Spitzer (7th), Elmer Hutchins (8th), Billy Marshall (10th). Hatfield (100th), Spitzer (104th), Marshall (126), and Hutchins (134) all rank in the top 150 in the league and have a chance to be dependable big leaguers.

The past two drafts have had a few gems, including Mel Leonard (44th), Bill Ross (60th), Ed Reyes (75th), and Leo Mitchell (92nd), but also a major bust in James Demastus. He was our first round pick in a rather thin 1930 draft, but Leonard was a million times better of a pick in the second round and in our top 100 prospect list (just Cougar players) Demastus ranks 87th. Our 20th Round Pick that year, Guy Gill, who I released and re-signed, ranks 86th...

There are a few other guys from those classes in our top 30; Roy Moore (9th, 129), John Hartz (10th, 131), Charlie Reed (13th, 148), Homer Ray (14th, 155), Chet Peacock (19th, 234), Fred Collins (22nd, 279), and Billy LeBeau (25, 326th). And speaking of top prospects, after the draft, I'll cover the top 30 prospects in what's likely going to be a bottom 5 farm. It's not a bad thing, as it's expected when you trade four top 100 prospects (Joe Johnson, Tom Barrell, Mel Leonard, and George DeForest) trying to win another pennant.