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There is always a break-even point evaluating the risk vs reward. Yes it is possible to never throw an interception if you just throw it away or take a sack when you aren't 100% sure, but playing so conservatively means you are sacrificing way too many chances at completions. In poker you could never lose a showdown if you fold everything but the nuts, but then you are going to be bluffed off every single other hand and hardly ever win pots.
And in baseball, you can play super safe one base at a time with zero risks if you want but then you are giving up too many opportunities which would increase your expected runs. If you never make an out on the basepaths then you aren't being aggressive enough. There are definitely bad times to be aggressive (if you are down 3 runs in the ninth then taking a risk is obviously not worth it) but this doesn't seem like one of them. Sometimes it just doesn't work out.
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