Quote:
Originally Posted by Cod
My biggest gripe with the pitching change wasn't the taking Snell out part. It was the fact Cash brought in Nick Anderson who up until then had given up at least one run in his past six appearances and Betts was killing RHP this season. Just look at his splits:
* vs RHP - .323 / .385 / .677
* vs LHP - .200 / .313 / .218
If Cash is truly a numbers manager, then he had to have known this...right? Why not bring in Loup instead? I'm afraid the front office set a pitching schedule and Cash had to stick to it, regardless of whether or not the ninth man in the LAD lineup got a hit. I honestly think Snell was coming out regardless of the outcome of that at-bat.
I just looked at more of the Mookie's stats and something stuck out to me. His batting average actually goes down the third time he faces a pitcher (.229) and climbs to .337 the first time he faces a relief pitcher. Also, the sixth inning was his worst inning from a hitting perspective by far (only batted .158 / .261 /.316 over 23 plate appearances). More reason Snell maybe should've stayed...
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No. A true numbers manager wouldn't base decisions on the results of 23 plate appearances.
What I say below applies as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Izz
I don't disagree but he doesn't *just* reference Snell's and Betts' 2020 stats. The 2019 stats (re times thru order/facing SP) support the same conclusion.
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And that's still "looking at the stats" and not at all "analytics"
First. MLB teams aren't looking at anything as crude as OPS. wOBA is much better than OPS and they aren't looking at that either. They are probably looking at something more like xwOBA which looks at how they hit the ball (using exit velocity and, yes, launch angle) not whether or not someone caught the ball when he hit it.
That aside
Sure, in 2020 an 2019 Mookie didn't hit well the 3rd time facing a pitcher
But, in 2018 he went .855>1.170>1.278
In 2017 it was .655>.876>.913
So, some years we can see that Betts hits worse the third time facing a pitcher and some years he hits better. In lieu of having a reason that he started getting worse when he saw a pitcher for the third time, it's best to assume that he follows the overall trend - he gets better as he sees a pitcher more times in a game. That's analytics 101 (or maybe 100 or 99).