[StLee]

Analysis

We're now 20 games into the 2298 season, and we are starting to see the haves and have-nots of the Commonwealth Baseball Organization. There are a lot of exciting storylines, but let us start with the flipflop that is the Railroad League standings.

As of April 19, the top four of the RL standings looked like this:
Oberland 10-1
Diamond City 8-3
Vault 81 4-7
FHE 3-8

As of today, May 2, the RL standings look like this:
Oberland 18-2
Vault 81 12-8
FHE 8-12
Diamond City 8-12

On April 19, PAM looked like an artificial genius in the way she had the Swatters challenging for the wildcard spot, even if no one was going to catch Oberland. In the nine games since then, which includes six divisional games, Diamond City has not won again. They have now been swept by first-place Oberland and second-place Vault 81, meaning they are in a deep divisional hole at 0-6. The Swatters have scored three or fewer runs in six of those nine losses, whereas they had only done that once in the first 11 games, their 6-3 opening-day loss to Goodneighbor. Their top two starters, X10-44 Mannson (2-1, 3.88) and Tyler Powers (3-2, 3.93) are pitching well, but their fourth starter, Jason Haynes (0-3, 13.00) is a virtual loss every time he takes the mound. At the plate, CF Logan Crawler (.195/1/11) is not getting it done as a leadoff hitter. The middle of the lineup--RF Wayne Lacy (.325/3/20), SS Wally Warwick (.349/4/17), and 1B Jeffrey Curatolo (.304/6/17)--are hitting well, but the rest of the lineup needs to step up to overcome the mediocre pitching.

On the opposite side of the bottle cap, Vault 81 has now won eight in a row, including sweeping division foes Roxbury and Diamond City with a sweep of Atom in between, putting them in the best early-season position for the RL wildcard. The Dwellers do not have the best pitching, but they are surprisingly middle-of-the-pack in quality so far, with the 7th best starters ERA (5.82) and the third-best bullpen ERA (3.67). Their batting lineup has been excellent with 6 of 8 starters hitting over .300, led by reigning CBO MVP RF Deer Quickwalker (.379/3/20) and power-hitting 1B Erns Gold (.333/8/15). Rookie sensation CF Aesed Hayjen is doing decently, but still sports the team's worst starting batting average (.277/2/12). In comparing the Dwellers and Swatters, one team looks to belong, and one team seems to be returning to the RL basement.

Another interesting factor in the early season is just how well the top two teams in the Brotherhood League are doing when comparing them to the rest of the North Charles Association and the CBO. Both the Nordhagen Beach Party Boys and Easy Town Assaultrons are three games up on their expected win-loss totals on the season. The only two teams that have done close to that are Oberland and Starlight, both +2.

Easy Town looks more like the team likely to return to the pack since they are getting the bounces so far. In one-run games, for instance, they have won 8 of 9. Outside one-run games, they are only 6-5. To me, that means they have luck as their biggest factor so far and they are probably closer to a team only slightly above .500 rather than a team with a .700 win percentage. One of the key factors in showing just how flimsy their start is would be to look at the runs scored (134, 1st in the NCA) versus runs allowed (124, 11th in the NCA). If pitching does not improve, the Assaultrons are going to see more losses pile up when they face off against the better pitchers of the league. So far, they have only met the Finch Farm Four Leafs in divisional games, going 4-2 against them, but the Four Leafs do not have the pitching prowess they had two years ago.

For the Party Boys, that path to the Sole Survivor Series may not have been a fluke. They are making Slocum's Joe Seaside Stadium a tough place for teams to go, and their starting pitching is one of the best in the league, shown by their currently being second in the CBO in runs allowed (81) and in starters ERA (3.54), both only behind the Oberland T-51s. The 1-2-3-4(!) punch of Tommy Beach (5-0, 3.35), Chet Arthur (1-3, 3.90), Julian Shed (2-1, 2.19) and Casey Diehl (3-0, 4.96) gives them great chances to win when the offense can offer run support. LF Michael Fogcrawler (.410/8/38), the NCA Player of the Month, is a viable MVP candidate, so the offense is not all bad. If it starts exploding, we are looking at a great chance for a repeat of the 2297 Sole Survivor Series regardless of what any other teams do.

We will break down the Institute and Minutemen Leagues more next week. For now, know that Fort Hagen and Abernathy are stars of the Institute League and look like they will be hanging around the top. A good bet is for both of those teams to win on average 3 of their 5 games each week. In the ML, Goodneighbor is all class, while Quincy, University Point, and Warwick look like they will be battling for that wildcard spot. Unless things go awry, it will probably be a long-term effort of mentioning those four teams since both Jamaica Plain and Atom look like they are anchored to the league cellar.

That is all for this week. We are enjoying the new format so far and hope to really break down later in the season how teams are affected by the five games per week schedule.