[luckymann]

LAST YEAR: 65-75 12 ½ GB, 7th / .291 / 3.76
BNN PREDICTION: 60-94 31 GB, last / .243 / 3.37
FARM SYSTEM: 6th
BEST PROSPECT: C Patsy Gharrity (1st)
PAYROLL: 11th, $24,840
HIGHEST PAID PLAYER: OF Mark Brouhard, $1,700
CASH BALANCE: $140,175
GAINS: P Mark Gardner (trade)
LOSSES: NIL

You’ve got to say one thing for this current incarnation of the Cincinnati Reds: they are remarkably consistent, finishing with almost an identical record last season as they did in the one before. Which would be a good thing if only they were near the top of the standings, rather than the bottom.

The Reds were a tale of two cities last season. Their offence scored the second-most runs in the NL, had the second-best BA with .291 and were equal leaders in HR with 30. Four of their everyday players – catcher Joe Ferguson (.338), along with outfielders David Murphy (.337), Vin Campbell (.324) and Kyle Blanks (.314) all broke .300, with Ferguson posting better than 6 WAR for the campaign. And rookie Sam Mele, who got a late-season call-up last year and didn’t disgrace himself (6-for-24 / 3 RBI), will be with the big-league club on Opening Day and should get plenty of game time. So I don’t see their run production falling off the precipice in 1904, especially if boom catcher Patsy Gharrity – rated the league’s #1 prospect – comes on as projected when he finally reaches the bigs; although, sadly for Reds fans, that is more likely to be next year than this.

It better not. If it does, they’ll lose 100 because – without putting too fine a point on it – their pitching is in the toilet. Reds hurlers gave up 782 runs last year, some 46 worse than the team above them, the equally sucky Giants (more on them later), with a league-worst 433 walks the main culprit. All of which makes it inexplicable that their only offseason move was the acquisition of 34-year-old Mark Gardner. With the trade bait of so many decent position players on their roster, most of whom are getting little game time or stuck in the minors (the highly paid bench-warmer Mark Brouhard, currently riding the pine at Cedar Rapids for $1700 a season, for one...), surely they could have done better than that?
Apparently not. So the way I see it, if they finish last as is predicted, well they kind of deserve it. I don’t think they’ll finish last. But I’d bet London to a brick they finish closer to last than they will first. At least the up-highs drafted OK, so hopefully the turnaround has begun. Until then, long seasons abound for Reds fans.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: OF Sam Mele; C Joe Ferguson