NEW DAY IN NEW YORK
From the desk of Jiggs McGee.
The first pitch of spring training is still 24 hours away but one can't help but feel like the biggest story of the 1934 season has already been written as the New York Gothams shocked the baseball world in acquiring Rabbit Day, arguably the league's best pitcher, from the rebuilding Baltimore Cannons. As word broke earlier today, reaction to the deal was quite varied with a near equal number of GM's feeling the Gothams got a steal as those who felt they had parted with a king's ransom. Either way, the consensus was the New York Gothams, with a rotation headed by a pair of 29 year old's in Day and Jim Lonardo, would be the most imposing one-two combination in the Federal Association.
Between them Lonardo and Day have five 20-win seasons and 5 Allen Awards. Day is coming off a 21-11 season with a 2.77 era and has led the Continental Association in strikeouts six straight years and in victories 3 of the past four season despite pitching for what recently has become one of the worst teams in the league. Day seems to be just hitting his peak as the Cannons drop to the bottom of the CA. His ERA last season was a run and a half better than the team total and he was 14 games over .500 the past two seasons while the rest of the Baltimore pitchers were 50 games under .500 during that span. Just imagine what Day can accomplish with a solid team behind him.
Going the other way were four prospects and three draft picks including the Gothams first, second and fourth round selections next December. The prospects are headed by a polarizing pitcher named Rusty Petrick, who was a first round pick this past December, as well as shortstop Oscar King and outfielders Billy Marshall and Jim Mason. The addition of the two outfielders would later allow the Cannons to, as expected, deal their other marquee veteran in 32 year old Lou Kelly to the Chicago Cougars for three more prospects.
Was the haul enough for the 29 year old Day? Well, that depends upon who you ask and ultimately depends on Petrick. Petrick is a very raw 18 year old out of Sacramento High School, who was tabbed as a late first round pick in the OSA mock draft despite posting a 3-11 career record and some very questionable stats in school ball. Some teams stayed away from him because of a concern that despite such raw tools he appeared to be a very high risk prospect but the Gothams grabbed him with the 10th pick last December. He presently sits at #20 on the Top Prospects list and seems like he could either be the perfect replacement for Day as the ace of the Cannons rotation in a few years or a bust that never accomplishes anything in the game. It is that risk that scares many and makes some of the GM's question if the Cannons might not have been able to get a better, or at least safer return for a pitcher of Day's calibre.
One Continental Association GM summed up Petrick this way: "He's super risky with how raw he is, but the ceiling is immense. He's either going to be the Cannons ace for 15 years or flame out before his 25th birthday. There's going to be no in between here, which makes this trade so interesting." That GM adds he feels this trade could have two winners but it could just as easily have a huge loser as it could go really bad for Baltimore.
Executives from some other teams agree, making comments such as this one. "Scouts see potential in this kid and it will be up to the Cannons' minor league coaches to get him to reach this potential...if it is real. If Petrick doesn’t become a true #1 SP or at worst a solid #2, then Baltimore could be looking at a lot of regret."
But another GM feels the deal will work out just fine for Baltimore even if Petrick does not live up to his potential. "Baltimore got a really good return," explained that executive. "Those 3 picks alone are valuable (particularly if the pool is deeper). Mason looks like a good one. Petrick? I don't know. He's riskier--he's all potential. But I think even without Petrick that's a good return."
A number of other teams were involved in talks with Baltimore before the Cannons eventually consummated the deal with New York. Perhaps the most aggressive team and the one with the most to gain by adding Day would have been the Cleveland Foresters. The one thing the Foresters, with their power-laden lineup led by recent acquisitions Max Morris and T.R. Goins, lacked was a true ace to anchor their rotation. Adding Day might well have been the piece the Foresters needed to mount a serious challenge to the defending champion Chicago Cougars but ultimately the Foresters felt the Cannons demand was more than they could afford to pay.
The rumoured demand was Baltimore wanted both Dean Astle and Ben Turner, a pair of very good young pitchers, along with outfielders Levi Redding and Leo Clark and the Foresters top 3 picks in the next draft. Astle was the sticking point as Cleveland refused to part with the 24 year old lefthander who went 7-3 with a 2.57 era as a rookie. Ironically Astle, who peaked at #12 on the top 100 prospect list, and Turner were both acquired by the Foresters from the New York Gothams in a 1931 trade. A source familiar with the Foresters says the club had to draw the line somewhere and the organization felt adding Day at the cost of two starting pitchers might be too heavy a price to pay while still hoping to challenge the Chicago Cougars for first place. However, a rival CA executive feels the Foresters missed an opportunity in not pulling the trigger.
"I understand why Cleveland would have been reluctant to trade Astle. But if I'm him, I do it. Day is one of the top--if not the top--pitchers in the league. On a good team, he'll look even better. And unlike hitters, I'm not leery of pitchers in their 30s in this league. And 1934 for Cleveland will feature a high power offense. I think lapping the field in home runs is not out of the question. They'll go as far as their pitching will carry them, and Day is a difference maker."
Not all General Manager's feel the deal made sense from the Gothams point of view. To show how varied the thoughts are on this trade an executive with a prominent team in the Federal Association thinks the Gothams might have overpaid, at least in terms of draft capital.
"We wanted him, too," he explained. "We offered a package of good young players with upside and an established veteran that would make the Cannons better now and in the future, but apparently it was draft picks they were after. We wanted to hold on to our draft picks for this next draft. As an organizational philosophy, we only go so far to acquire one player, I don't care how good that player is, and Rabbit Day is one of the best. Losing 3-4 pieces and a host of draft picks for one guy that could blow out his arm tomorrow? No thanks."
That GM later also questioned if Day can be as effective in the Fed, which traditionally has had a lot more offense and plenty of hitter friendly parks when compared to the Continental. "The price was really steep. Day has great numbers, but he hasn't dealt with the big bats of the Fed."
JIGGS TAKE
So what are my thoughts on this deal? I have no qualms at all about the Gothams giving up a bunch to add Day. He is in his prime and my bet is he helps the Gothams win at least a couple of more pennants and quite possibly one this season. I also applaud them for getting the deal done without having to part with top prospect Curly Jones.
From Baltimore's side this potentially could be a great windfall. However, it comes with huge risk which makes me inclined to believe the Cannons acted too soon. Day was their one marketable asset that could generate a number of pieces to help turn their club around. And I think they undersold themselves. If Baltimore could not pry Curly Jones away from the Gothams they should have walked away and said let's table this deal for a month. Spring training has not yet started and the regular season is a month away so there was zero urgency on the part of the Cannons to get a deal done now. I have to believe, especially when we look at the haul of prospects Milt Fritz brought Brooklyn a year ago, that there was a safer deal with close to the same upside out there from someone come April or May. Now Fritz is 5 years younger than Day but, while very good, he is also not the quite the quality of pitcher Day is and I think if they had held firm in the demand for Curly Jones, the Cannons would have found someone willing to make a big offer a month or so into the season. Yes, there is risk that Day continues to pitch well and doesn't get hurt, but in my mind that is a lot less risky than banking on Petrick being a future star.
If Baltimore is 100% confident Petrick is the real deal then this move makes sense but I just don't think anyone can say they are sure about him at this stage. That is another reason to hold off on this deal a month. It would give them a chance to see what Petrick does in Class B or C action while at the same time maybe forcing New York to sweeten the offer if they are set on wanting Day. And if they back off the Cannons could always have circled back to Cleveland or whoever else suddenly feels they are a contender in May.
Even the draft picks make me worry a bit. The likelihood is they will be pick 13 at best because the Gothams, barring some very unexpected circumstances, are going to be contending for the pennant. The draft has changed substantially this season with the folding of the feeder leagues which means the class might be a lot more unpredictable then previous ones. That could be a good thing, but like Petrick it means more risk on the Cannons side - risk that could have been abated somewhat by waiting a month until the draft prospects get some time to show their stuff this spring. If all goes well this deal could be great for Baltimore and kickstart their rebuild, but if it doesn't this could set the franchise back years.
Let's say Petrick is not the pitcher some scouts think he can become. Let's say the 1934 draft is as thin as the 1933 one and Cannons do not land a bluechip prospect with the pick they acquired from New York in round one and don't get anything of real value out of the round 2 and 4 picks. All draft picks are risks but for the reasons mentioned above I believe this class is a bigger risk than past years. Now it could also be a bigger reward if it turns out to be a bumper crop so there remains the possibility this is a huge win for the Cannons. But if it isn't and if Petrick is not able to cut it all are you left with in exchange for Rabbit Day - a pitcher with possibly half a dozen seasons as a dominant starter and maybe 3 or 4 years as a decent middle of the rotation piece- is 3 decent prospects.
Don't get me wrong. Oscar King is a very good defensive shortstop but so far he has not shown he can hit in this league. Jim Mason will turn 26 this season and while he has some pretty good minor league numbers, the former first round pick has to play a big league game. He is a top twenty-five prospect and will likely get a chance to play everyday in Baltimore this season. Billy Marshall is just 22 and put up some big numbers between AA and AAA a year ago so he also looks like a solid outfielder. All three are great components for Baltimore to add in this deal but none of three are worthy of being the centerpiece of a trade like this.
I hope this works out for Baltimore as the franchise has gone far too long without a pennant (since 1914) but if things go south with Petrick and the picks do not pan out getting just those three position players in exchange for Day will be a nightmare for Cannons fans. The reward might end up being there but it is the risk of this deal that has me concerned. I get the swing for the fences approach with Petrick but not with your one truly marketable piece in Rabbit Day. Sometimes you need to shorten your swing a bit and take a couple of sure doubles to rally your team rather than swing for the fences and strike out. As one GM mentioned to me. This could be a trade where both teams win but it could just as easily be a deal where Baltimore loses big. Time will tell. It will certainly be interesting to follow and if Rusty Petrick did not have the eyes of the league on him already he sure does now.