[StLee]

Analysis

We have reached the 60-game mark, which would have been the end of the regular season in the past two seasons. We are also one week away from the first-ever CBO All-Star Game over the Independence Day holidays. Looking at the standings, if the playoffs started today, we would have the following first-round matchups:

NCA
#4 Starlight (33-27) at #1 Nordhagen Beach (35-25)
#3 Easy Town (34-26) at #2 Abernathy (34-26)

SCA
#4 Diamond City (30-30) at #1 Oberland (46-14)
#3 Quincy (33-27) at #2 Goodneighbor (40-20)

The North Charles Association used a poor weak by the Party Boys to become a really tight race. Only two games separate the Boys from the four-seed Lady Killers right now. All 12 teams still have realistic, though not all likely, chances at making the playoffs and winning the NCA.

On the other hand, the South Charles Association still looks to be a final battle between the T-51s and the Hancocks for association supremacy. While the wildcard team of the Minutemen League could be a dark horse to win it all, the wildcard of the Railroad League appears to be an easy out in the first round. Today that team is the Swatters, but in a week it could be the Egret Ninjas or the FHE Yao Guai.*

* Continued in the last section of this column

Power Rankings

Weekly Team Power Rankings: Here are the current team power rankings for Commonwealth Baseball Organization:

Teams (Total Points, Tendency):
1) Oberland T-51s (143.0, o)
2) Goodneighbor Hancocks (117.0, o)
3) Easy Town Assaultrons (106.0, ++3)
4) Nordhagen Beach Party Boys (102.0, -1)
5) Quincy Gunners (101.0, +2)
6) Abernathy Adamantium (101.0, ++3)
7) Warwick Mirelurks (101.0, ++3)
8) Starlight Lady Killers (100.0, --4)
9) Diamond City Swatters (95.0, ++4)
10) Lexington Synths (94.0, +2)
11) The Slog Ghouls (91.0, --3)
12) Egret Ninjas (91.0, +2)
13) Concord Radstags (90.0, ++3)
14) Finch Farm Four Leafs (88.0, +1)
15) Fort Hagen Silver Shroud (86.0, --4)
16) University Point Deathclaws (86.0, --11)
17) FHE Yao Guai (85.0, o)
18) Salem Witch Hats (84.0, o)
19) Atom Cats (76.0, +1)
20) Jamaica Plain Red Rockets (73.0, -1)
21) County Crossing Bloodbugs (72.0, +1)
22) Vault 81 Dwellers (70.0, +1)
23) Sunshine Tidings Chemists (66.0, -2)
24) Roxbury Knuckle Punchers (37.0, o)

Biggest Riser

Diamond City (+4, LW - 13, TW - 9) - On a 4-1 week, including a split with Minutemen League-leader Goodneighbor and a sweep of Railroad League last place Roxbury (see playoff chances below), the Swatters are currently flying high and would make the playoffs should they begin today. In a three-team race for the wildcard spot in the RL, the Swatters seem to have the advantage with a 23.18% chance to make the playoffs. This week they repeat their opponents but play both on the road instead of at home heading into the All-Star break.

Biggest Faller

University Point (-11, LW - 5, TW - 16) - Battling for the ML wildcard spot, the Deathclaws had a devastating week within a six-game losing streak. University Point lost all five games to two bottom-dwellers: Vault 81 and Atom. In those games, the Claws scored 1, 1, 2, 4, and 4 runs. They will need to do much better to break out of their slump as they host FHE and Atom this week. That losing streak dropped them out of second place into a third-place tie with Warwick, both a game behind Quincy.

Other Observations

*Vault 81 and Roxbury are looking to be out of the playoff race soon. Take that back a bit: the Knuckle Punchers are out of the race and predict they have only a 14.64% chance of making the playoffs. It would mean that they get extremely hot the rest of the season and go approximately 38-10 with the majority of those wins coming over league opponents Diamond City, Egret, FHE, and Vault 81. At the same time, take that back 2: Mathematically, PAM gives the Knuckle Punchers a 14.64% chance to make the playoffs. I, however, give them a 0% chance to make up those 14 games and get all the wins from the Minutemen League they would need to drop four other teams in the RL behind them.

Teams go through slumps, but teams usually follow a pattern of wins and losses, so what is up with the Institute League and its big swings? Just like last year's drop by the Lady Killers, this year's big dropper so far has been Fort Hagen. The bright April that the Silver Shroud had has started to look like an anomaly after they have struggled mightily in May and June. With a two-game stretch at Salem, Fort Hagen could still salvage a winning June, but it is looking more and more like they are right where they belong at .500.

Speaking of the IL, it still could be any team's league to win, but Abernathy and Starlight are both appearing to be the more aggressive in making that happen. For both teams, they had better hope their moves work out because they may be licking their wounds if they don't.

Nordhagen Beach made a somewhat surprising move of trading away third baseman Tommy Talkington. Talkington was expected to be a future star for the Party Boys, but the staff was getting impatient with what he was delivering. Some even referred to Talkington as a "rally killer" since the Boys had been depending upon late-inning stretches of runs. Unfortunately, Talkington was more likely to strike out than get a hit. His numbers were down across the board, and so were the Boys' wins and run totals. The move they made to acquire Jon Hitman should immediately pay dividends. In 2.5 years as a starter, Hitman has only struck out a total of 78 times. Talkington already struck out 70 this season! While Hitman does not provide as much power, he does provide hits, man.