[BirdWatcher]

End of season award possibilities?:

As we enter the final full month of the season there isn't a great deal of suspense over whether the Brewers will be headed back to the Kinsella Classic Series. While it would be foolish of the team to let their guard down now and take the pennant for granted, realistically it is extremely unlikely anyone other than the Denver Brewers will end the season at the top of the standings in the MGL (or in all of the WPK, for that matter).

But where there is more suspense is on the question of whether any Brewer players will walk away with a major award at the end of the season?
Let's look at major award chances, starting with...

MGL MVP:

Last season many in the Brewers camp felt that veteran second baseman Bobby Erbakan deserved the league MVP award but with several players in the MGL putting up big offensive numbers, and particularly big power numbers, Bobby fell just short, finishing second to Baltimore's Chris Tobin.
This season looks quite a bit different as home runs are down and while the MGL continues to have better overall offensive numbers than the SJL, there are fewer standout individual performances.
At this time two Brewers teammates are at the top of the league in WAR among position players- Brett Taranto and Josh Schaeffer, both with 6.0 WAR.
Taranto continues to lead the MGL in batting average, though he has seen his average dip a bit lately, hitting at a .345 clip. His nearest competitor, Detroit's Bryan Whitehead, sits at .339 with Baltimore's Robert Mustard third at .331. Taranto is currently just 1 RBI off the lead league, shared by teammate Val Guzman and Phoenix' slugger Ju-au Ju, who each have 83 RBI. Taranto is first in hits in the MGL with 187, first in triples with 13, first in total bases with 282, second behind Ju-au Ju in extra base hits with 52. He is third in slugging percentage at .520, third in OPS at .903, second in runs scored behind teammate Josh Schaeffer with 98, fourth in Win Probability Added behind Mustard and teammates Josh Schaeffer and Val Guzman at 3.41, third in wOBA behind Schaeffer and Ju at .403, and eighth in isolated power at .175. And he has a very good chance at earning a Gold Glove award for his play at first base.

Schaeffer, meanwhile, is in the midst of a great second half of the season, and is now seventh in batting average (.316), first in OPS (.962), fourth in slugging (.513), first in runs scored (100), first in OPS+ (151), third in isolated power (.198), first in wOBA (.425), second in WPA (4.25), and of course, as pretty much always, first in walks (90) and OBP (.962). And he is a solid defender in right field (+4.0 ZR) with a plus arm (12 outfield assists).

Other than each other, who are Taranto and Schaeffer's biggest competitors for MVP?
The rejuvenated Ju-au Ju will certainly be in the mix. After winning the award in 1975, the slugging Phoenix right fielder struggled through a couple of injury marred seasons but currently leads the league in home runs with 25, is tied with Val Guzman for the RBI lead at 83, is fourth in OBP (.389), first in slugging (.538), second in OPS (.926), third in total bases (243), eight in walks (65), first in extra base hits (54), second in isolated power (.235) and OPS+ (139). He is also second in wOBA (.410) and fifth in WPA (3.17). But given that he is a poor defender and a slow runner, Ju's 4.6 WAR puts him well behind the leaders in the league.

What about veteran L.A. third baseman Jesus Hernandez, an almost sure Hall of Famer? Well, Hernandez, at age 37, is second in the league in home runs with 24, second in slugging (.524), fifth in OPS (.879), tied for fourth in extra base hits (46), first in isolated power (.238), third in OPS+ (.138), and fourth in wOBA (.392). And with still very good defense in spite of his age and lack of pure speed (he does remain a great base stealer and base runner for such a slow guy), Hernandez sits in fourth place in the MGL in WAR at 5.4. Hernandez could win this second MVP trophy on the strength of those fine numbers combined with his nearly matchless reputation.

And rookie Robert Mustard? He is among the league leaders not just in batting average (3rd) but also RBI (5th), OBP (7th), slugging (5th), OPS (4th), WAR (5th), hits (3rd), runs scored (3rd), doubles (1st place, tie), total bases (2nd), extra base hits (3rd), OPS+ (4th), WPA (1st), and wOBA (5th). The young man is almost surely the Rookie of the Year (sorry, Atwell) and should get strong support for MVP as well.

A few other possible strong candidates: Oklahoma City's Jaime Benjamin (.289/.363/.482, 3.8 WAR), Brooklyn's Tommie Signor (.302/.377/.447, 5.8 WAR), Detroit's John Hemmah (.319/.399/.414, 5.2 WAR).


Pitcher of the Year:

Aaron McNally of Brooklyn has won this three of the past four seasons. And this year he leads all of the WPK with 19 wins, is first in WAR at 7.6, first in complete games (13), second in FIP (2.47), second in rWAR (6.8), tied for second in quality starts (21), and eighth in ERA (2.87). Is all of this good enough for a fourth Pitcher of the Year trophy? Well, we wouldn't bet against him.

But if it isn't McNally then almost surely it should be Denver's own Sadahige Kawasaki.
Kawasaki leads the league in ERA (2.13), is tied for third in wins (with teammate Sekien Hamasaki) with 15, is second in WAR (7.1), first in K/BB (5.3), first in BB/9 (1.0), first in WHIP (0.97), first in FIP (2.43), first in ERA+ (190) and rWAR (7.5) and in quality starts (23).

And let's not count out teammate Sekien Hamasaki either. Hamasaki is just third in ERA (2.43), tied for third in wins (15), third in WAR (5.9), sixth in strikeouts (124), second in K/BB (3.2), third in K/9 (6.6), seventh in BB/9 (2.1), second in WHIP (0.98), third in FIP (2.51), third in ERA+ (167) and rWAR (5.9), first in opponents batting average (.206), third in winning percentage (.789), and seventh in quality starts (19).

There are other decent contenders, but really it should come down to these three.
Surely Brooklyn's Jose Hernandes (12-3, 2.30, 1.19 WHIP, 3.9 WAR), L.A.'s Eduardo Obando (12-7, 2.83, 1.17, 4.8 WAR), Oklahoma City's rookie Joe Shetler (14-9, 3.07, 1.24, 4.0 WAR), among others, will get some votes. But the good money is on either McNally or Kawasaki walking away with the hardware, with Hamasaki a bit of dark horse.

Rookie of the Year:

Folks in Brewers nation would naturally like to see budding future ace Jim Atwell get this one. And it's not that Atwell isn't deserving, what with his 14-6 record, 3.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 3.2 WAR. He is among the league leaders in several categories: wins (tied for 5th), shutouts (tied for 3rd), strikeouts (4th), K/9 (4th), WHIP (5th), rWAR (8th), opponents average (2nd), and win percentage (7th). We didn't mention him above, but surely he will even get some Pitcher of the Year votes.
But let's face it, this one is almost surely Robert Mustard's to lose. And he probably won't lose it.

Reliever of the Year:

Veteran Brewer closer Tim Shore should be a strong contender for this award, which he won while in the SJL in 1974. He is having a great season at age 32, with 22 saves in 24 chances, a 1.40 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. But as basically a one-inning closer he hasn't pitched a lot of innings and so has a WAR of just 0.9.

Oklahoma City's Ben Bakeman (one of my favorites) leads the league in saves with 27 (also with 2 blown saves), has a fine ERA of 2.03, a WHIP of 1.01, and 1.3 WAR.

Detroit's veteran closer Lawrence Jones has had the finest season of his long career. Jones has earned 24 saves (with 3 blown saves), has an ERA of 2.55, a WHIP of 1.26, but with more innings pitched has a WAR of 1.7.

These are probably the main candidates and it is hard to know who might win this, but my money is on Bakeman.


Ulrik's Update:

Head scout Ulrik Berthlesen has delivered his latest development report from the scouting staff.

Unsurprisingly the scouts see a decline in the value of veteran lefty Erik Sloan. There is also some sense that left-handed reliever Victor Colon is trending in the wrong direction.



On the other hand, they are pleased with how things are going for third baseman Jake DiCesare, who is seen as having developed into a superior defensive player.
And minor league outfielder Eric Hammock is now projected to be an offensive force in the WPK, and the sense is that his bat, at least, is big league ready right now. (No word yet on whether the team will call him up this season but he did just get moved up to AAA.)




Top outfield prospect Matt Catlett also is seen as exhibition growth in both his contact hitting abilities and his batting eye potential.




September call-ups:

With the calendar rolling around to September 1st, the Brewers have brought up several players from AAA Chester, including Rich White who had been on a rehab assignment since coming off the IL.
Two of the heroes of last year's Kinsella Classic Series return: pitcher John Weaver and outfielder Jon Williams.
Relievers Brandon Veach and Rand Pinti also return.
Catcher Erik Bettencourt, who has put up a slash line of .355/.410/.538 with 4.3 WAR at Chester this year, is back. Nearing age 26 and with all the indications of being able to be a starter at the WPK level, it is time for the Brewers to figure out how they are going to use this young man (possibly as trade bait?).

A surprise addition is 22-year old starting pitcher Antonio Valadez, who is a durable, hard working young man who has put up fine numbers in the minors in spite of not being considered a legitimate prospect. (Okay, this was a mistake- I was trying to drag and drop Weaver and accidentally got this guy. But then I decided it made sense to give him his cup of coffee as he has earned it and he doesn't have ratings that would indicate he is completely over-matched at the WPK level- just mostly over-matched. )



Other players are likely to join the Brewers as the month wears on, but with the Big Stick in first place it was decided to give them a chance to earn another championship and not strip them of all of their most valuable players. (The two young first baseman are both having tremendous years and likely one of them will be up soon with the other to follow later: Richard Escamilla has a slash line of .336/.422/.549 and 3.6 WAR and Bobby Stewart is hitting .336/.409/.500 with 1.4 WAR as his backup.)