[ayaghmour2]

I was just scrolling through my thread looking for really old bad sims while writing my report yesterday when instead I came upon my old top prospect lists. What caught my eye was on the 11-20 post who sat right at the top. That would be our former 11th best prospect Dean Astle who currently pitches for the Cleveland Foresters. Since my interest was piques I looked at all the players, and I could not believe it. All of them had made major league debuts! I thought this had to be a fluke, but then I checked all the 1-10 guys. 9 of 10! And the last is on a 40! And 6 of the 21-30 guys did too! Did I do something right? Or did I just promote my own players to pad my stats? I have nothing to compare this to, but I don't think I've ever seen a real life team have anything similar. In a very unscientific sample, the 2015 Los Angeles Dodgers top 30 prospect list had 17 of 30 debut. The 2015 Houston Astros 19 of 30. 2016 Tampa Bay Rays had 22 of 30. The 2016 Atlanta Braves 21 of 30. For giving about the same amount of seasons passing, these are four of the better farms I remember from that time period.

Let's take a look at our 1929 prospect group:

1. 3B Mack Deal (26th Overall)
2. SP Ben Turner (29th Overall)
3. C Fred Barrell (31st Overall)
4. SP Heinie Bretz (49th Overall)
5. SP George DeForest (51st Overall)
6. 2B Rabbit Forrest (55th Overall)
7. SP Dick Kadlec (61st Overall)
8. SS Clyde Hinzman (63rd Overall)
9. 3B Harry Simmons (64th Overall)
10. SS Pat Schuring (72nd Overall)
11. SP Dean Astle (75th Overall)
12. SS Slim Bloom (76th Overall)
13. RF Vince York (77th Overall)
14. CF George Jordan (97th Overall)
15. SP Lou Gaffin (116th Overall)
16. SP Ben Curtin (141st Overall)
17. 1B Jim Fisher (160th Overall)
18. RP Ed Woodward (165th Overall)
19. CF Mike Smith (178th Overall)
20. LF Earl Johnson (they stopped at 200 back in the day...)
21. SP Mickey Williams
22. SP Milt Nelson
23. RF Ray Ross
24. SP Fred Carter
25. CF Erv Frith
26. RF Ralph Collier
27. CF Tom Thomas
28. SP Art Black
29. CF Joe Davis
30. SP Gus Cain

And the breakdown:
Players with FABL PA/IP: 24 (80%)
Debuted with us: 16 (53.3%)
Debuted somewhere else: 8 (26.7%)
Played only for us: 8 (26.7%)
Played somewhere after us: 8 (26.7%)
Didn't play for us: 8 (26.7%)
Still in organization: 5 (16.7%)
Current Cougars: 1 (3.3%)
2+ FABL Seasons: 17 (56.7%)
4+ FABL Seasons: 8 (26.7%)

One of those who played only for us is the out of options Dick Kadlec who was claimed by the Keystones and he has a chance to pitch with them. Dean Astle (starting season 2) is left out of the 2+ seasons and he's going to pitch for a long time. Jim Fisher was also claimed off waivers, but he's not out of options. He still has a chance to debut as well. I also think it is unfair that Gus Cain counts as someone who debuted with us and only played for us as he was drafted in the Rule-5 Draft twice (Saints, Sailors), with the first time before we gave him big league innings.

Still, I'm really impressed with the numbers. 24 of the 30 prospects have already debuted, but let's look at the six that didn't:

5. George DeForest (on Brooklyn's 40)
21. Mickey Williams (was on my 40 at one point)
23. Ray Ross
24. Fred Carter
26. Ralph Collier
28. Art Black (on my 40)

It's padding stats now if I call up the 29-year-old lefty Mickey Williams who's more or less AA depth, but I can't imagine DeForest and Black don't join the list. 26 of 30 is almost a 90% hit rate and it's not like these guys were close to the big leagues. A few were Rule-5 Picks (Simmons, Davis, Smith) so they got a head start, but Simmons and Smith both made last year's Opening Day rosters and have been important pieces. We're 5 years in the future and we have ages from 24-31 so this is 19-26. Most were on the younger side as the oldest guy Fred Carter really wasn't much of a prospect.

Enough about the misses, how good were the hits?

The best was Dean Astle who currently ranks as the 8th best pitcher in baseball as a 24-year-older. Mack Deal and Fred Barrell have played in the majors in each season since 1929. 8 of the 30 played in more then four seasons. Rabbit Forrest is a World Champion and everyday starter, Ben Curtin was an inaugural All-Star, and Ben Turner beat us 6-5 yesterday. (He's also a dependable big league starter). Vince York was a dependable outfielder for three years with us and he hit well in his first season in St. Louis.

The loan current Cougar is Slim Bloom, who had a really strong 1933 season that might lead to an expanded role. My scout thinks he can defend at short, so when Combs gets injured he might get the call over Arnold Bower. Back to my scout, he thinks Bloom "can put a hammerlock on the shortstop slot" so perhaps Bloom can reach to the level of Barrell, York, or Deal.

I do find it interesting how many of these players I traded away, but let's see what they got us:

RF Tom Taylor (also gave up C Jim Stevens)
SP Steve Castellini
1/2 of SP Tommy Wilcox and C Mike Taylor
Brooklyn 1930 2nd and 5th Round Pick (SP Mel Leonard and SP Fred Collins)
SP Joe King and Keystones 1929 2nd Round Pick (SP Roy Byrd), (also sent SP Johnny Douglas)
1/4 of SP Max Wilder and SS Russ Combs (via. Schuring)
3B John Kincaid
1932 Pioneers 2nd Round Pick (CF Marty Roberts)
CF Cy Bryant
SP Dick Leudtke
1931 Dynamos 2nd and 6th Round Pick (1B Leo Mitchell and SP Joe Cotton) (also sent SP Cotton Taylor)

Looks like a decent enough collection. Only time will tell if what I added will be worth more then what I subtracted, but I'll take a 1931 World Series ring and a 1933 Continental Association title over the uncertainty of the future.

Although I might feel a little different if I'm watching Dean Astle pitching in October...