Thread: Mystery guys
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Old 12-07-2020, 06:15 AM   #2
CBeisbol
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Join Date: Aug 2019
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It's no mystery
It takes A LOT more playing time that 1 or 10 games

Quote:
One of the most difficult tasks a responsible baseball analyst must take on involves avoiding small samples of data to make definitive claims about a player. If Victor Martinez goes 4-10, it does not automatically make him a .400 hitter.

The question asked most often with regards to small sample sizes is essentially – When are the samples not small anymore? As in, at what juncture does the data become meaningful? Martinez at 4-10 is meaningless. Martinez at 66-165, like he is right now, tells us much, much more, but still is not enough playing time. What are the benchmarks for plate appearances where certain statistics become reliable?

Cutter basically searched for the point at which split-half reliability tests produced a 0.70 correlation or higher.

50 PA: Swing %
100 PA: Contact Rate
150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA
200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB
250 PA: Flyball Rate
300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB
500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate
550 PA: ISO
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/when-sam...come-reliable/

This data, of course, is for major league baseball, not for OOTP. One could do their own analysis of OOTP if they wanted. My guess is that the split-half correlations would be higher (fewer PA's) in OOTP. But that's a guess. But they still wouldn't be anything like what you list for the above players


Quote:
Originally Posted by Andrej72 View Post
I really want to improve the team's batting average and OBP
Focus on playing players with high contact and eye ratings


Quote:
but I guess that there is not any strategy or other kind of setting by which I can achieve this. Strategy does not start working until a player gets on base. Or is there any way to instruct a guy with high gap power to aim for the gaps and try not to hit flyball?
No
You may be able to get hitting coaches who focus on contact or patience. But the effects of this will
1) be subtle
2) take years, not a few games because those coaches will influence your prospects' hitting development. Your major league hitting coach should also have some effect, but, again, it will be subtle.

Last edited by CBeisbol; 12-07-2020 at 06:51 AM.
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