So here we are on the cusp of the 14th annual Kinsella Classic Series to determine this year's WPK champions.
Let's take a quick look at the teams in this year's series.
First an overview of the Shoeless Joe League's El Paso Dawgs:
As has been well documented here, the Dawgs were the weakest club in the SJL for the first decade of the league's existence, and while they have been steadily improving for a few years, this marks the first time they will compete in the KCS.
The Dawgs offense was fairly middle of the road in the SJL in 1978- they finished 6th (out of 12) in runs scored, 10th in home runs, 11th in base running, and 4th or 5th in most other categories. On the pitching side of things they were much better, finishing 3rd in runs against, starters ERA, FIP, pitching WAR, and strikeouts. The bullpen was not quite a good, finishing 6th in ERA. They are a tremendous defensive team, though, and their +45.9 ZR was second in the WPK to only Denver. They made the fewest errors in the SJL and had the 2nd best defensive efficiency.
Now the Brewers:
Well, you know the Brewers. They finished with 111 wins this season, topping the previous high of 108, which they had also set back in 1971.
The Brewers finished 1st in most major offensive categories in 1978, other than stolen bases (4th) and home runs (3rd).
As for pitching and defense, the Brewers were 2nd in runs against, starters ERA, FIP, and strikeouts, 1st in pitching WAR, and 5th in bullpen ERA. Defensively, they finished with a WPK best +52.7 ZR and were 1st in defensive efficiency while finishing second in errors. (Though their 97 errors were a bit better than the 104 that El Paso committed in leading the SJL in this category.)
Let's compare teams by position:
Starting pitching:
This is pretty close to a wash, with both teams having talented and deep rotations. A slight edge might go to Denver just based upon their ace (
Sadahige Kawasaki) being more dominant than El Paso's ace (Dan Bottom.)
Bullpens:
Not the biggest strength of either club. The late innings are probably in slightly better hands for Denver but let's essentially call this even. Though one factor that might end of being important is that El Paso has just one left-hander in the 'pen (and a left-handed Ace in Bottom), while the Brewers bullpen has 4 left-handers and 3 right-handers for the series (with an all right-handed rotation.)
Catchers:
This is another close category but I think the edge has to go to the Brewers again. El Paso starting catcher Spencer Wilson, a former Brewer, is basically
Zacarias Martell lite. And while backup catcher Yasujiro Oshima is theoretically a better hitter than Denver's
Kirk Patnode (though their season numbers would differ from this assessment), he is clearly inferior to
Patnode defensively, largely just because he has a very poor throwing arm. (He is otherwise defensively quite good.)
First basemen:
Pretty huge advantage to the Brewers. Possible MGL MVP
Brett Taranto matched up against 2-way player Vincent Medina, who is a solid hitter and average defender and backup Jason Mason, who is fine all around, but nothing special.
Second basemen:
With Brewers superstar
Bobby Erbakan not on the post-season roster due to a back injury, the advantage would have to go to El Paso at this position. They have a budding star in Nathan Littlepage, and former Brewer Jonathan Koch, having recently returned from the IL, backing him up. Not to mention 34-year old veteran Josh Waldron, who can still provide some quality off the bench. Not that rookie
Jose Figueroa and veteran back-up/utility infielder
Joe Willemse haven't done a fine job in
Erbakan's absence, but this one goes to the Dawgs.
Third basemen:
Veteran Trevor Leach has been a star in this game for a long time and is the team captain for the Dawgs. He may not have as potent a bat as he once did but he is still a fine defensive third baseman and the edge has to go, even if not as much as one might expect based upon reputation, to El Paso at this position. As for the Brewer's
Jake DiCesare, he has proven to have a fine bat and his defense has been something of a revelation. (Denver also has the luxury of having several other excellent defensive players who can play this position if needed in
Figueroa,
Willemse, and
Nick Ward.)
Shortstops:
This is a position of great defensive strength for both teams but Denver's
Rich White also provides some quality at-bats while El Paso's Brennan Anderson is, as an offensive force, well, a really good defensive shortstop. (In other words, all glove, no hit.) So, advantage Denver.
Leftfielders:
El Paso's Curtis Horah is the greatest defensive player of his generation and a pretty decent little hitter too.
Val Guzman emerged this year as a really fine all-around player for the Brewers. The edge here would have to go to El Paso, but not by as much as one might expect.
Centerfielders:
The Brewers
Joe McPhillips is a former league MVP and a really fine player. Pete Wierderkehr of the Dawgs is the future and that future is already being realized. Slight advantage still to
Joe defensively. But overall this is a pretty solid win for El Paso.
Rightfielders:
El Paso might have the best defensive outfield in the game (though admittedly one of the teams that would challenge them for this title is the Brewers), and right fielder Anthony Schaer won a Gold Glove last year and it likely won't be his last. He is maybe the best defensive right fielder in the game with one of the strongest outfield arms. And actually, he's probably a bit better defensively in center field than Wiederkehr. And yet. And yet he finished the season with a -0.1 WAR, while starting 152 games. That's what a slash line of .184/.305/.269 will do for you.
Josh Schaeffer is an MVP candidate. Very big advantage: Denver.
Bench:
Let's not forget about Denver's 4th outfielder
Antonio Acuna, who can change a game in a hurry with his power bat, great speed, and superb defense. The Brewers also brought back last year's KCS MVP
Jon Williams for this series.
Geoff Bartholomew provides depth at shortstop and a bat that has been dynamic all season long, at both AAA and with the Brewers.
Nick Ward is the defensive infield specialist and has great speed. And
Joe Willemse provides depth and clutch hitting.
El Paso has great depth at second base, a fine young 4th outfielder in Nick Thompson, and a few veteran former stars in Josh Waldron and Bobby Hunter.
Advantage Denver, by a decent margin.
On the whole, on paper, one would have to give the edge to the Denver Brewers.
But they don't play the game on paper, so let's play ball and see what happens.