The Minutemen League Wildcard Threesome
The Minutemen League is shaping up to be the best end-of-season battle, at least for right now. With Warwick, Quincy, and University Point all within two games of each other, the team that has the best run down the stretch gets awarded with a playoff series at either Goodneighbor or Oberland. Still, once in the playoffs, that team has a chance to win it all, while the other two teams in the ML race can only eat Fancy Lads Snack Cakes and watch.
Looking at the remaining schedules, let's look at the probabilities of success in their order in the standings.
Warwick - 54-39
Remaining Schedule:
2 vs FHE
3 vs Goodneighbor
2 at Vault 81
3 at University Point
2 vs Vault 81
3 vs Jamaica Plain
Estimated remaining record: 10-5
Estimated final record: 64-44
Estimated place: 2nd
Analysis: The Mirelurks have the easiest remaining schedule with one matchup against Goodneighbor and one trip to University Point standing in their way. We expect them to continue their recent hot streak and barely take the wildcard spot by two games with a sweep of Jamaica Plain in the last weekend.
Quincy - 53-40
Remaining Schedule:
2 vs Diamond City
3 vs University Point
2 at Diamond City
3 at Goodneighbor
2 vs FHE
3 vs Goodneighbor
Estimated remaining record: 7-8
Estimated final record: 60-48
Estimated place: 4th
Analysis: The Gunners look to have the worst remaining draw with only one series remaining against a team with a losing record (FHE). They get Goodneighbor for six games, and that is a problem since the Hancocks are trying for the best record in the CBO. Diamond City is still trying to make the playoffs, so they want to win, and of course a playoffs battle with the Deathclaws next weekend will not be easy. We think the draw is just too tough for the Gunners to even finish with a winning record in their last 15.
University Point - 52-41
Remaining Schedule:
2 at Oberland
3 at Quincy
2 vs Egret
3 vs Warwick
2 at Roxbury
3 at Atom
Estimated remaining record: 10-5
Estimated final record: 62-46
Estimated place: 3rd
Analysis: Well, it's a rough start next week to be both at Oberland and Quincy. Still, if they can split with the T-51s and beat the Gunners in that rod series, only their matchup with Warwick will stand in their way to the wildcard. With three series versus teams with losing records--Egret, Roxbury, and Atom--the Claws need this week to determine if they can overtake the Mirelurks. They are also the team of the three that gets both of the other teams, meaning they can make their own success in low-scoring affairs.
