Having mentioned that there is good money on Lazaro Lowndes being the first man in the WPK to reach 3,000 career hits, I thought it might be a good idea to dig a bit deeper on this issue, especially as we don't want to shortchange the great Felix Lopez, who is the leader in this category and still may well get there first.
So here is a look at the top 15 all-time in hits in the short history of the WPK thus far:
Felix Lopez:
Let's start at the top and talk about future WPK Hall of Famer Felix Lopez. There is little doubt that Lopez is probably the most sure-thing first ballot HOF'er among the first wave of WPK players. The 2-time league MVP and 10-time All-Star has led the league in hits 8 times in his career and won 4 batting titles. He has averaged 215 hits per 162 games played in his career. He needs just 169 more hits to get to 3,000. The last two seasons Felix has racked up 143 and 149 hits respectively and is off to a good start at the plate again this year (.323/.347/.423). There are good reasons to believe that he will get to 3,000 before his career is over and very likely next season, which is the last one on his current contract with Washington.
However, he is injury prone and 36 years old and a subpar fielder at this stage of his career so in order for this to come true he will have to a) stay healthy and b) keep his starting job. If he stays on the pace he is on this year he is projected to collect 162 hits total (126 off the 169 he needs to get to 3,000) and would then only need 43 next year to reach this milestone. I think he'll almost surely get there, but because of the danger of injury and the very small amount of decline that would be required for him not to viable in the field anymore, I am going to estimate his chances of making it at 88%.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 88%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 15%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: 1%
Travis Johnson:
Two time MVP Travis Johnson has led the league in hits 3 times in his career and won 2 batting titles. And although he is now 40 years old, theoretically at least he remains an even more potent hitter than Felix Lopez. Problem is, there is no place on the diamond for him to play where he isn't a liability. Last season Johnson collected 139 hits for Detroit while being an absolute disaster in left field (ZR of -20.4 leading to a WAR of 0.6). The Falcons wisely let him leave as a free agent and he signed with San Francisco where he mostly comes off the bench and occasionally plays first base (very poorly). He is hitting .238/.294/.333 and is pissed off that he isn't starting and in the middle of the lineup.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 3%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Josh Jenkins:
Josh Jenkins is the longtime team captain for the San Francisco Velocity and he is the most prolific base stealer thus far in WPK history (618 career stolen bases, caught stealing 199 times). At age 35 Jenkins remains a solid defender at second base and can still flat out fly on the base paths. He is a decent hitter but his years of collecting somewhere around 200 hits a season are long past. He is currently signed through 1980 and while he is starting to experience some nagging small injuries with the passage of time he is not particularly injury prone. Still, 3,000 hits seems like a bit much to ask.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 10%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Lazaro Lowndes:
We discussed Lowndes a bit of course in the previous post. So let's just cut to the chase:
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 90%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: 48%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: 7%
Jesus Casiano:
Jesus Casiano is almost surely a Hall of Famer and in 1970 he put up one of the most impressive offensive seasons yet- maybe the most impressive- in WPK history. But at age 37 there is almost nothing left for Casiano and he currently is playing for the El Paso Dawgs AAA club on a minor league contract. Maybe he gets a few more big league hits, maybe not. He is currently shy of the 2,500 mark which he might somehow sneak his way into, but beyond that, no chance.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Nate Bennett:
Nate Bennett is the most prolific power hitter in the first generation of WPK players and currently leads the WPK in career home runs with 451. But at 39 years of age and with no defensive skills left at all, he has been reduced to a bench role with the Los Angeles Spinners this season. (Last year he was a starter and hit 20 homer while driving in 88 runs and yet had a WAR of -0.2.)
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Jesus Hernandez:
Even at age 38, Jesus Hernandez remains a fine third baseman and a dangerous hitter, who in fact led the league in home runs just last season. But he's not a great contact hitter at this stage of his career and has collected just around 140 hits per season his past two seasons. He is also fragile and his contract expires at the end of this season. It is hard to imagine Hernandez getting to 3,000 hits, though 2,500 might still be within reach.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Jason Janes:
Janes had possibly the greatest outfield arm the game has yet seen and compiled 201 outfield assists over his career, a career which included 4 All-Star game appearances. He is now 36 years old and considered an Iron Man, but his bat-to-ball skills have diminished enough the he currently languishes at AAA in the San Francisco organization and likely doesn't have much, if any, big league career left.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Cody Kane:
Kane is an interesting case. The revered team captain of the Boston Berserkers is only 32 years old and remains a fine hitter. But his defense is suspect, he is quite slow, and he is very injury prone. He is off to a slow start this year though he had a solid enough season in 1978. If he can stay healthy enough he might get to 2,500 career hits. But given his small stature he is unlikely to successfully transition to first base, so his diminishing returns defensively are likely, along with his propensity for injury, to lead to an early retirement.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: 1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Ryan Rodgers:
If only Ryan Rodgers didn't have such a great eye at the plate, if only he didn't draw so many darn walks, he might have had a real shot at the 3,000 hit club. But seriously, great hitter, great player, almost surely a Hall of Famer, and no reason at all to take anything away from him for not getting to this milestone. Could he get to 2,500? Probably a long shot at age 40, but the man is on pace for a 6.2 WAR season so I guess don't count him out yet.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Danny Sanchez: Retired at end of last season.
Trevor Leach:
Another team captain, another great third baseman, another fragile old guy. (Well, only 34, but an old 34.) Still a good defender and could have a few more productive years left. But unlikely to make it to 2,500 hits, let alone 3,000 or more.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Mike Robinette:
Good guy, decent defensive second baseman still, has the wheels still at age 34, but pretty average hitter at this point and fragile. Not enough hits left in this bat to reach any significant milestones. Could make the WPK Hall of Fame, but probably will fail after being on a number of ballots and getting lukewarm support.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
David Beane:
Still surprisingly talented for a 42-year old player who was never really at the top of the talent pool in the WPK. But end of the line is in sight.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Ricky Salinas:
And we saw Salinas get career hit number 2,000 recently. Almost surely his last big milestone reached in that category.
Estimated chances of 3,000 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 3,500 career hits: >1%
Estimated chances of 4,000 career hits: >1%
Now of course there are younger players who have a good chance of someday getting into this discussion (Chris Tobin, Justin Vargas,
Bobby Erbakan, and Kasey O'Neil are among the under 33-year olds who are nearer the top of the career list) but they are going to have to produce for a few more years before we seriously discuss their chances.
So in summation, Felix Lopez has the best chance to get 3,000 first, providing he doesn't suffer serious injuries which curtail his career before he gets there, while Lazaro Lowndes is likely the next to the club and has the best chance to get to at least 3,500 in his career of the current crop of players.