Quote:
Originally Posted by jpeters1734
oh no, i didnt mean to imply at all that it doesnt affect young players. It certainly does. What I was saying is that the effects are more noticeable in established players because you'll notice a guy on a HOF path all the sudden regress where when a prospect regresses, you'd mostly attribute it to the natural volatility of development
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So I spent the entire night crunching the numbers. My league has spanned from 1967 to 2005 so far with a TCR of 145 throughout, and this is the breakdown by number of players who made it to the majors by draft round, followed by the top 3 career WARs from players in that round:
1: 854 -- 162.8, 99.1, 91.2
2: 633 -- 71.6, 69.9, 63.3
3: 402 -- 85.2, 78.3, 71.9
4: 388 -- 64.6, 62.6, 51.3
5: 283 -- 49.6, 49.6, 35.5
6: 271 -- 51.5, 45.2, 33.4
7: 218 -- 36.1, 30.5, 23.5
8: 187 -- 72.2, 69.9, 34.2
9: 155 -- 77.5, 63.2, 51.7
10: 133 -- 61.2, 29.8, 24.8
11: 117 -- 87.1, 76.3, 45.3
12: 96 -- 42.6, 22.2, 14.6
13: 96 -- 65.3, 34.9, 32.8
14: 69 -- 58.8, 28.7, 26.5
15: 64 -- 30.3, 16.2, 14.2
16: 46 -- 31.8, 13.2, 12.5
17: 49 -- 43.9, 24.8, 24.6
18: 33 -- 20.7, 14.7, 9.9
19: 35 -- 37.1, 19.2, 13.1
20: 24 -- 24.8, 23.0, 10.8
21: 23 -- 14.0, 8.2, 8.1
22: 23 -- 19.3, 7.9, 3.3
23: 17 -- 28.7, 1.7, 0.8
24: 11 -- 33.3, 2.1, 1.8
25: 7 -- 12.9, 0.8, 0.3
Now here is Major League Baseball's draft results from 1981-2019 (same length of time, though my league hasn't expanded at the exact same time so there are a different number of teams represented throughout, but you get the jist.. also I double-counted players who were drafted twice cuz I cranked all this out by hand, but the WAR figures are from the round when the player signed).
1: 1021 -- 162.8, 139.2, 117.5
2: 548 -- 106.6, 101.1, 80.7
3: 416 -- 69.2, 62.3, 58.1
4: 346 -- 79.9, 56.5, 51.7
5: 341 -- 45.6, 45.4, 44.3
6: 294 -- 57.9, 49.8, 47.3
7: 334 -- 60.4, 44.4, 39.8
8: 206 -- 45.4, 45.1, 35.4
9: 207 -- 52.6, 50.6, 38.1
10: 197 -- 35.0, 34.7, 25.8
11: 181 -- 82.8, 44.2, 34.5
12: 154 -- 23.1, 20.0, 19.2
13: 165 -- 100.7, 72.9, 28.3
14: 138 -- 19.8, 17.0, 15.1
15: 120 -- 42.4, 39.2, 23.9
16: 127 -- 31.0, 20.9, 16.5
17: 129 -- 68.4, 55.2, 51.1
18: 114 -- 46.7, 16.3, 16.3
19: 126 -- 58.9, 41.9, 24.9
20: 124 -- 55.4, 36.7, 24.9
21: 95 -- 15.4, 13.2, 11.9
22: 89 -- 69.0, 60.2, 24.7
23: 95 -- 50.0, 27.1, 11.5
24: 93 -- 42.7, 18.2, 18.0
25: 88 -- 18.7, 17.8, 10.5
Now I don't know exactly what this means. Top 3 WAR definitely represents outliers in the latter rounds, as things dive off quickly after the top three. But it does appear that MLB has a more gradual slope as the draft goes on than a fictional league with a 145 TCR. I'm thinking hiking up the TCR, but lowering the aging speed more so that you can extend the glory period of productive players chasing milestones
might be the most realistic setting? But my methodology might be totally cuckoo bananas lol.